Match Stats
Sevilla are coming into this match in some decent form and despite losing 2-3 to Real Madrid at the weekend they currently sit in 5th place on 69 points which is just 3 points behind 4th place Valencia in the bid for Champions League places.
Sevilla boast a strong domestic home record that reads W10, D4, L1 and the weekend defeat was the first competitive home defeat since going down 0-2 to Real Betis in a Europa Cup game in March last year.
When facing the Top 6 Spanish sides, Sevilla boast an average record that reads W3, D3, L4.
Sevilla’s Europa Cup record is exceptional and reads a strong W9, D0 L1.
Since 2000 this will be the first time that these two clubs have met in European competition.
Fiorentina are coming into this match after a 3-1 victory over Cesena. Despite this win Fiorentina have struggled recently and in all competitions they have only won 2 of their last 8 matches.
Fiorentina’s recent domestic away record reads W6, D4, L5 and when facing the top Serie A sides it reads a fairly average W2, D2, L6
Fiorentina’s recent Europa League away record reads W6, D4, L0 and indeed Fiorentina have only lost 1 of their last 20 Europa League away matches.
Goal Stats
When considering the goal line the stats are mixed. Looking at both sides' last 10 Europa League home and away matches, in the 20 matches 11 have seen 3 or more goals and 9 have seen 2 or less. This form is also replicated when looking at both sides domestic form to the top sides. 10 of Fiorentina’s last 15 Serie A away games have seen 3 or more goals.
Summary
This looks to be an excellent match up and my ratings suggest that there is value in both the match and goal lines.
Looking at the goal line my ratings are highlighting value in Under 2.5 goals. However my major concern is Fiorentina’s goal scoring record away from home. In the Europa League Fiorentina have found the net in 12 of their last 13 away games. When looking at their Serie A form they have scored in 13 of their 17 away games.
For my trade I am going to turn to the match line where my ratings suggest some small value in backing Sevilla to win the game. Sevilla have approached this competition with some determination where this season they have beaten Borussia Monchengladbach and Villarreal both home and away and they were very resilient when drawing 2-2 at Zenit in the quarter finals. Sevilla have won 12 of their last 15 home games in all competitions and have only dropped points against Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid and Barcelona. Fiorentina do not come into this standard of opposition.