CORITIBA - GREMIO
A narrow edge, nothing more. Coritiba is the shortest price on a book of 2.20 / 3.30 / 3.25 (1 / X / 2), an implied 42.7%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 42.7% / 28.4% / 28.9% on an overround of 6.5%.
The draw is unusually well backed at 3.30 (28.4%), which normally points to a cagey, low-scoring game rather than an open one.
Liquidity is strong — €15,858 already matched on the 1X2 market, putting this among the most heavily traded fixtures on the card. Prices in a market that deep are far more reliable than in a thin one.
In the league table Coritiba sit 12th on 39 points (10W 9D 12L) with Gremio 18th on 31 points (7W 10D 14L).
Coritiba read L-D-L-L-D-L across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (0W 2D 4L) — poor.
Gremio read L-D-D-D-L-L across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (0W 3D 3L) — more bad than good.
Head to head the record reads 0-1-5 — Coritiba wins, draws, then Gremio wins. Their last meeting finished Coritiba - Gremio: 1-2.
Our last-six model flags 1 qualifying strike here. Reading Coritiba first, then Gremio, out of their last six: GG 3 and 5.
Coritiba lean hardest on Pedro Luccas Morisco da Silva (9.5), Sebastian Gomez (9.2), Joaquin Lavega (9.1) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Gremio lean hardest on Everson Pereira da Silva (9.5), Cristian Pavon (9.0), Mathias Villasanti (8.8) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Played at Estadio Couto Pereira, capacity 37,182. Ramon Abatti takes charge.
The read: Coritiba at 2.20 is the side the market is with, and nothing in the data above argues against it.
This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 22:00 on 26th October 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.