Southampton v West Ham
06 Feb 2016 19:30 Southampton v West Ham
Southampton are now starting to find the form of last season. Here they are coming off a very creditable 0-0 draw away at Arsenal and the Saints have now taken 10 points from their last 12, and they have also not conceded in these 4 matches. Currently Southampton sit in 7th place on 34 points and their recent home record reads a reasonable looking W8, D3, L4.
When hosting teams placed in the Top half of the table Southampton’s home record reads a mixed W4, D2, L4 and Ronald Koeman’s side can be backed at around 1.73. When looking at my ratings this looks priced a little low.
The recent head-to-head matches at St Mary’s have a draw bias and the record reads Southampton 0 wins, 3 draws and West Ham 0 wins.
The draw can be backed at around 3.80 and this offers some decent value, especially when taking into account the recent meetings between the 2 sides.
West Ham are also having a very good season, they are coming off a routine 2-0 home victory to bottom of the table Aston Villa. This victory ensured that the Hammers have only seen 1 loss in 11 Premier League matches. Currently they sit in 6th place on 39 points, which is only 6 points off a Top 4 place. West Ham’s recent away record reads a mixed W5, D5, L5.
When visiting Top half sides, Slaven Bilic’s side boast a reasonable W3, D3, L4 record and here they can be backed at a value looking 5.70. If you do fancy the Hammers, then you can keep an element of the 1 goal loss on your side and they can be backed +0.5/1.0 at around 2.00.
As far as goals are concerned then the stats suggest we may see a few. When looking at both sides last 10 respective home and away matches to similar opposition then we have the following. In the 20 matches, 13 have seen 3 or more goals, 5 games have seen 2 goals and only 2 matches have seen 1 or less goal scored. Only 1 of Southampton’s last 16 games have seen 1 or lees goals, and my ratings suggest value in over 2/2.5 goals which can be backed at around 1.95.
This looks a good match between 2 in form sides and my ratings suggest value both in the match and goal lines. For my trade I am looking to the visitors. West Ham have been incredibly resilient of late and they have only lost 1 of their last 5 away matches. Looking at my ratings the draw offers some very good value at around 3.85 and could be played by the more adventurous. As the Saints have won their last 3 home matches, I will keep an element of the 1 goal loss on my side and there is some good risk v reward backing the Hammers on the handicap. So my recommended trade for this game is West Ham +0.5/1.0 at around 2.00.