BOURNEMOUTH - STURM GRAZ
This is priced as a mismatch. Bournemouth is the shortest price on a book of 1.167 / 7.5 / 15 (1 / X / 2), an implied 81.1%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 81.1% / 12.6% / 6.3% on an overround of 5.7%.
Under 2.5 goals has drifted from 3.07 to 3.39 (9.4%). Layers are happy to take that side on, which is worth respecting.
Liquidity is strong — €106,394 already matched on the 1X2 market, putting this among the most heavily traded fixtures on the card. Prices in a market that deep are far more reliable than in a thin one.
In the league table Bournemouth sit 10th on 3 points (1W 0D 0L) with Sturm Graz 19th on 1 point (0W 1D 0L).
Bournemouth read L-L-W-D-D-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (1W 3D 2L) — patchy.
Sturm Graz read W-L-D-W-L-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (2W 2D 2L) — patchy.
Bournemouth team news: Alex Scott and Justin Kluivert are both expected to be unavailable for the Sturm Graz game on Thursday.
Bournemouth team news: Lewis Cook was an unused substitute against Chelsea and may feature in the starting lineup for the Europa League.
Sturm Graz team news: Oumar Diakite netted twice against Austria Wien and is likely to start on Thursday.
Sturm Graz team news: Gizo Mamageishvili is one of four confirmed absentees for the away team.
Bournemouth are without 2 — Alex Scott (Out - injured), Justin Kluivert (Out - injured). Of those, Alex Scott (7.72/10) is the one this team genuinely misses.
Sturm Graz are without 4 — Nelson Weiper (Out - injured), Otar Kiteishvili (Out - injured), Filip Rózga (Out - injured), Gizo Mamageishvili (Out - injured).
Early lineups are in: Bournemouth set up 4-2-3-1 against 3-5-2. See the pitch graphic above for the full XI.
Bournemouth lean hardest on Marcus Tavernier (8.5), James Hill (8.5), Evanilson (8.5) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Alex Scott is out for Bournemouth — index 8.9, against 8.3 for the best cover we hold at his position. Noticeable.
Justin Kluivert is out for Bournemouth — index 7.6, against 9.1 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Sturm Graz lean hardest on Albert Vallci (7.0), Jon Gorenc Stankovic (7.0), Daniil Khudyakov (7.0) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Gizo Mamageishvili is out for Sturm Graz — index 7.1, against 9.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Played at Vitality Stadium, capacity 11,360. Jerome Brisard takes charge.
The projected score for this one is Bournemouth 2 - 1 Sturm Graz, a home win by 1 with 3 goals in it — on the right side of the 2.5 line.
The read: Bournemouth at 1.167 is short enough that the value, if there is any, sits on the handicap or in the goals market rather than the outright.
This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 19:00 on 15th October 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.