02 Feb 2016 21:45 West Ham v Aston Villa
West Ham are having their best season for some time, and here the Hammers are coming off a 2-2 home draw to the Premier League favourites Manchester City. This draw left Slaven Bilic’s side in 6th place on 36 points, and they are now only 6 points from a Champions League place. West Ham’s recent home record reads a very resilient-looking W6, D6, L3, and it should be noted that they are now unbeaten in 9 home games.
When hosting the bottom 6 sides, West Ham’s home record reads a very solid-looking W7, D2, L1, and they can be backed at around 1.85 which looks to offer some value.
The recent head-to-head record at Upton Park is mixed and reads West Ham 1 win, 2 draws, and Aston Villa 1 win.
The draw can be backed at around 3.65, and this neither offers any value or appeal.
Despite being bottom of the table and 10 points away from safety, Aston Villa are having their best run of the season. They are coming off a 0-0 draw away at neighbours West Brom, and Remi Garde’s side are now undefeated in 3 matches, having lost just 2 of their last 7. Aston Villa’s recent away record reads a very poor-looking W2, D3, L10.
When visiting sides placed in the top half of the table, again Villa’s form is poor and reads W1, D1, L8. They can be backed at around 4.90. If you do fancy them to do well, then you can always keep the draw on your side and back them on the +0.5 handicap at around 2.10.
Looking at the goal line then the stats point to a high-scoring game and when looking at the last 10 home and away games for both teams against similar opposition, then 3 or more goals have been seen in 10 games, 2 goals have been seen in 6 games, with only 4 games containing 1 goal or less. My ratings also suggest value in over 2.0/2.5 goals which can be backed at around 1.95.
Looking at my ratings, there is value in both the match and goal line. When looking at the goal line, only 3 of West Ham’s last 15 home games, and 3 of Aston Villa’s last 15 away games have seen 1 or less goal scored and the risk v reward in backing over 2.0/2.5 goals looks worth taking on.
For my trade I am turning to the match line and going with the home side. West Ham’s home record against teams from the lower half of the table this season reads a mixed W3, D3, L1. However, here they are coming up against an Aston Villa side who when visiting top half sides this season have only taken 1 point from 15, whilst conceding 13 goals in the process. Here my ratings suggest the Hammers should be giving up a full goal, and my recommended trade is West Ham -0.5 at around 1.85.
03 Feb 2016 21:45 Watford v Chelsea
Watford halted a poor run of 4 defeats on the bounce when beating Newcastle United 2-1 at Vicarage Road last time out. This victory left Quique Flores' side in 10th place on 32 points and Watford’s recent home record reads a mixed-looking W5, D2, L5.
When hosting mid-table teams, Watford’s record reads W1, D0, L1, and here they can be backed at around 4.30. If you do fancy the Hornets to do well, then you can keep the draw on your side, and they can be backed on the +0.5 handicap at around 1.92 which looks to offer some small value.
This is the 1st time that the 2 sides have met in the Premier League at Vicarage Road in the last 5 seasons.
The draw can be backed at around 3.50, and again this looks to offer some small value.
Under Guus Hiddink, Chelsea are yet to taste defeat, and after beating Arsenal 1-0 at the Emirates, the Blues are now unbeaten in 7 matches. The victory over the Gunners has left Chelsea in 13th place on 28 points, and they are now 14 points away from a top 4 place. Chelsea’s recent away record reads W5, D4, L6.
When visiting promoted sides, Chelsea’s record reads a reasonable-looking W5, D2, L3, and it should be noted that they have won 5 of their last 6 matches under these circumstances. Chelsea can be backed at around 2.05 which offers no real value.
As far as goals are concerned, then the stats point to overs. When looking at Watford’s opening 12 home games and Chelsea’s last 15 away games, then we have the following: 15 of the 27 games have seen 3 or more goals, 2 games have seen 2 goals, whilst 10 games have seen 1 goal or less scored. Here my ratings suggest some small value in backing over 2.0/2.5 goals at around 2.00.
This has the makings of a good encounter and my ratings suggest some small value in the match and goal lines. When looking at the match line, the value looks to be siding with Watford to avoid defeat. However, this season 4 of their 5 defeats have come against Spurs, Man City, Man United, and Arsenal. This suggests that Watford do not perform well against the bigger clubs and any result here would be seen as an achievement for the home side. For my trade I am turning to the goal line. There have been 3 or more goals in 9 of Chelsea’s last 13 away games and this has also been seen in 6 of Watford’s last 8 home games. Here there looks to be some decent risk v reward in backing overs on the handicap and my recommended trade is over 2.0/2.5 goals at around 2.00