Everton v Swansea
24 Jan 2016 15:30 Everton v Swansea
Everton are coming into this match on the back of a thrilling 3-3 with Champions Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. Roberto Martinez side succumbed to an 8th minute injury time equaliser and were generally the better side throughout. This was Everton’s third draw on the bounce and currently they sit in 11th place on 29 points. Everton’s recent home form reads a very mixed looking W5, D4, L6
When hosting sides placed in the bottom 6 Everton’s home record reads a reasonable looking W5, D3, L2 and here they can be backed at around 1.73 and this looks priced a little low.
The recent head-to-head record at Goodison Park reads Everton 2 Wins, 2 Draws and Swansea 0 wins
The draw can be backed at around 4.00 and this looks to offer some small value.
Swansea registered a vital 1-0 home win over promoted Watford last Monday night. Now under the stewardship of Francesco Guidolin, the Swans currently sit in 17th place on 22 points, which is now just 1 point above the drop zone. Swansea’s recent away record reads a poor looking W4, D3, L8 and they have now lost 6 of their last 8 away games
When visiting teams of Everton’s grading Swansea’s away record reads W3, D2, L5 and they can be backed at around 5.30. If you do fancy them to do well here, then you are certainly best keeping an element of the 1 goal loss on your side and they can back be backed on the Asian Handicap + 0.5/1 goal at around 2.05.
As far as goals are concerned and with the line set at 2.5 then there is a small leaning to overs. When looking at both sides last 10 home and away matches to similar opposition we can see that in 20 matches 11 have seen 3 or more goals and 9 have seen 2 or less goals scored. 7 of Everton’s 11 home games this season have seen 3 or more goals, and my ratings also suggest value in Over 2.5 goals and this can be backed at around 2.00.
This is a very interesting matchup and when looking at my ratings then value is at a premium. Looking at the goal line, then although the value is with overs, only 5 of Swansea’s last 15 away have seen 3 or more goals scored. Here Everton are rightful favourites and indeed since Swansea entered the Premier League Everton have not lost in 9 Premier League outings between the 2 sides. However Roberto Martinez side have now only won once in 9 Premier league matches. Here the Toffee’s offer no value and with Swansea only losing 2 of their last 16 away games by 2 or more goals their looks some decent risk v reward siding with the visitors. So my recommended trade is Swansea +0.5/1 goals at around 2.05.