18 Jan 2016 22:00 Swansea v Watford
Since the sacking of Garry Monk 6 games ago, Swansea’s fortunes have not improved. Now guided by Alan Curtis Swansea are coming off a very poor 2-4 loss to fellow strugglers Sunderland and this defeat has left them in 17th place on 19 points which is now only 1 point above the drop zone. Swansea’s recent home record reads an average looking W5, D5, L5 and it should be noted that they have now only won 1 of their last 9 home matches.
When hosting promoted sides, Swansea boast a decent looking record which reads W5, D5, L0 and here they can be backed at around 2.50.
This is the first time in the last 5 seasons that the sides have met at the Liberty Stadium.
The draw can be backed at around 3.25 and despite Swansea’s recent home form to promoted sides this looks a little low.
Watford have now lost 3 matches on the bounce, however these defeats have come against Spurs, Manchester City and last time out at Southampton. There is no question Quique Flores side were very unfortunate to lose against both Spurs and Manchester City. The defeat at Southampton has left Watford in in 10th place on 29 points and their recent away record reads W4, D3, L3.
When visiting teams placed in the bottom 6, Watford’s away record is decent and reads W3, D2, L0 and the Hornets can be backed at around 3.25. You do have the option of keeping the draw on your side and Watford can be backed on the +0.0/0.5 goal handicap at around 1.85.
When looking at the goal line then the stats point to overs. When looking at both sides' last 10 home (Swansea) and 5 away (Watford) games to similar opposition then we see that only 3 of the 15 matches have seen 1 or less goals, 5 have seen 2 goals and 7 have seen 3 or more goals scored. Only 1 of Watford’s 10 away games this season have seen 1 or less goal. Here my ratings suggest value in Over 2.0 goals which can be backed at around 1.88.
This is a vital game for a Swansea side that looks in free fall and here my ratings are suggesting value in both the match and goal line. When looking at the stats there certainly looks value in backing Over 2.0 goals. For my trade I am turning to the match line where the value lies with the visitors. Swansea have now only won 2 of their last 17 Premier League matches and here they are coming up against a Watford side that have been resilient away from Vicarage Road and the Hornets have now only lost away at Man City, Leicester & Southampton. There looks some decent risk v reward in siding with the visitors on the handicap, so my recommended trade is Watford +0.0/0.5 goals at around 1.87.