16 Jan 2016 14:45 Tottenham v Sunderland
Despite losing 0-1 to high flying Leicester on Wednesday night, Spurs are coming into this game in some good form, and Mauricio Pochettino’s side have now only lost 2 of their last 20 Premier League matches. This defeat has left Spurs in 4th place on 36 points and they are still only 7 points behind leaders Arsenal. Spurs' recent home record reads a decent looking W7, D4, L4.
When playing teams placed in the bottom 6 of the table, once again Spurs' record is reasonable and it reads W6, D2, L2 and here they can be backed at around 1.36. This price can be enhanced by backing Spurs on the -1.5 goal handicap at around 2.10.
The recent head-to-head record at White Hart Lane certainly favours the home side and reads Spurs 4 Wins, 1 Draw and Sunderland 0 wins.
The draw can be backed at around 5.40 and this looks to offer some small value.
Sunderland are having a poor season, they have lost 5 of their last 7 matches. However four of these losses have come against Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City & Liverpool. Here Sam Allardyce’s side are coming off a much needed 4-2 win at Swansea, and this victory has left them in 18th place and they are now only 2 points from safety. Sunderland’s recent away record reads a very mediocre looking W3, D3, L9.
When visiting teams that are placed in the top 6, Sunderland’s form reads a very mediocre looking W1, D1, L8 and the Black Cats can be backed at around 11.00. If you do fancy Sunderland to do well here then you can keep the 1 goal loss on your side and they can be backed on the +1.5 goal handicap at around 1.89.
As far as goals are concerned then there is a leaning to overs. When playing similar opposition in both sides' last 10 home and away matches we see that in the 20 games, 8 have seen 4 or more goals, 7 have seen 3 goals, whilst 5 have seen 2 or less. Here my ratings suggest the value is with the over 2.5/3.0 goal line and this can be backed at around 1.93.
This looks a tough game to call on the match line and when looking at my ratings the only real value looks to be with the draw. Although Spurs are rightful favourites, it is certainly questionable if they can cover the -1.5 goal handicap as they have only won 3 of their last 10 hosting the bottom 6 sides by 2 or more goals. For my trade I am turning to the goal line, where when visiting top 6 sides only 2 of Sunderland’s last 10 away have seen 2 or less goals scored. Indeed Sunderland have conceded 30 goals in their opening 11 away matches and they have also found the net in their last 6 away matches. Here the value is with overs and my recommended trade for this match is over 2.5/3.0 goals at around 1.93.