Aston Villa v Leicester City
16 Jan 2016 19:30 Aston Villa v Leicester City
Aston Villa are having a terrible season, and if the first half of the campaign is anything to go by then it will be a major surprise if Remi Garde’s side are not a Championship side next season. Despite coming off a 1-0 victory over Crystal Palace, Villa have still only taken 7 points from their last 17 matches. Currently Villa sit bottom of the table on 8 points and their recent home record reads a mediocre looking W3, D4, L8.
When hosting teams placed in the top 6 of the Premier League, Villa’s record reads W2, D3, L5 and they can be backed at around 3.65 and this looks to offer no real value.
The recent head-to-head record at Villa Park reads Aston Villa 1 win, 0 draws and Leicester 0 wins.
The draw can be backed at around 3.40 and this looks priced a little low.
Leicester are having what can only be described as an extraordinary season, particularly when you consider that they were in Aston Villa’s position this time last year. Here Claudio Ranieri’s side are coming off a very good 1-0 victory at Spurs and currently they sit in 2nd place on 43 points and their recent away record reads a solid W9, D4, L2.
When visiting sides placed in the bottom 6, Leicester’s record reads a positive looking W4, D2, L3 and it should also be noted that they are now unbeaten in 6 of these matches. Leicester can be backed at a value looking 2.20. You also have the option of keeping an element of the draw on your side and the Foxes can be backed on the -0.0/0.5 goal handicap at around 1.91.
When considering the goal line then the stats are very mixed. When looking at both sides' last 10 home (Villa) and 9 away (Leicester) against similar opposition, we can see in the 19 matches that 8 have seen 3 or more goals, 6 have seen 2 goals, and 6 have contained 1 or less goals. 8 of Leicester’s 11 away games this season have seen 3 or more goals, and Over 2.0/2.5 goals can be backed at around 1.90
How things have changed in a year. Last season in this fixture Villa offered the value, but not so here. When looking at the goal line then the value is certainly with Over 2.0/2.5 goals. For my trade I am turning to the match line where Leicester look to offer some excellent value. Both sides' recent form speaks for itself and with Leicester only losing 5 of their last 21 away games, with all of the defeats coming against sides that occupy places in the Top 8, then the Foxes offer some good risk v reward against a side that have only taken 3 points at home all season. So my recommended trade for this game is Leicester –0.0/0.5 goals at around 1.91.