Stoke City v Arsenal
17 Jan 2016 18:15 Stoke City v Arsenal
Stoke City seem to raise their game against the better sides. This season alone they have beaten Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea at home and indeed they have not conceded in these 3 matches. Here they are coming off a 3-1 victory over Norwich City and Stoke currently sit in 10th place on 29 points, and their recent home record reads a decent looking W8, D2, L5.
When hosting the elite Premier League sides, Stoke’s home record reads a very respectable looking W5, D2, L3 and they can be backed at around 4.60. If you do fancy the Potters to do well then you can keep the draw on your side, and they can be backed +0.5 goals at around 2.05.
The recent head-to-head record at the Britannia certainly favours the home side and reads Stoke 3 wins, 2 Draws and Arsenal 0 wins. Indeed since Stoke entered the Premier League, Arsenal have only won 1 of 7 at the Britannia.
The draw can be backed at around 3.60 and this looks correctly priced.
With nobody really taking a grip in the title race, it would appear that Arsenal have an outstanding chance of taking this seasons' Premier League crown. Here the Gunners are coming off a 3-3 draw with Liverpool and currently they sit in 1st place on 43 points and their recent away record reads a strong looking W9, D3, L3.
When visiting teams of Stoke’s stature, Arsenal’s record again reads a reasonable looking W5, D1, L4 and Arsene Wenger’s side can be backed at around 1.92 and this looks priced a little low.
When looking at the goal line then the stats point to overs. When facing sides of similar opposition in both sides' last 10 home and away games we see that 3 or more goals have been seen in 15 matches, with only 5 games containing 2 or less. My ratings also suggest value in backing Over 2.0/2.5 goals at around 1.87.
This looks as though it is going to be another blood and thunder affair, and my ratings suggest value in both the match and goal line. When looking at the goal line, then 9 of Arsenal’s last 10 visits to mid-table sides have seen 3 or more goals and Over 2.0/2.5 goals certainly looks to offer value. For my trade I am turning to the home side. After only taking 3 points in their first 6 league matches, Stoke have now taken 29 points from their last 15 matches and they certainly raise their home performance against the better sides. Despite starting the season winning 5 of their opening 6 away games, Arsene Wenger’s side have been very inconsistent in recent matches away from the Emirates losing at West Brom and Southampton, whilst dropping points at Norwich. This potentially could be an awkward afternoon for the Gunners and all the value is with the home side. So my recommended trade for this game is Stoke +0.5 goals at around 2.05.