12 Jan 2016 21:45 Newcastle v Man. United
This Tuesday evening sees a vital Premier League fixture when Newcastle host Manchester United at St James Park. Kick-off at 19:45 GMT.
After putting a reasonable run together when they beat both Spurs and Liverpool, Newcastle have now lost 3 Premier League matches on the bounce, with the latest coming away at leaders Arsenal. However Steve McClaren’s side did put up a battling performance at the Emirates and currently they sit in 17th place on 17 points, which is now 2 points from safety. Newcastle’s recent home form reads a very modest W3, D5, L7.
When playing teams of Manchester United’s stature, Newcastle’s record reads a mediocre W2, D0, L8 and they can be backed at around 5.05 and this does not look to offer any real value.
The recent head-to-head record at the St James Park certainly favours the away side, and reads Newcastle 1 win, 1 Draw and Manchester United 3 wins.
The draw can be backed at around 3.70 and this looks correctly priced.
Manchester United gained a much needed victory over Swansea last time out, and this was United’s first win in 7 Premier League matches. This victory left Louis van Gaal’s side in 5th place on 33 points, and they are now 9 points behind leaders Arsenal. Manchester United’s recent away form reads a reasonable W6, D3, L6 and it should be noted that they have only won 1 of their last 5 away games.
When facing teams of Newcastle’s grading, United’s away record reads a reasonable looking W4, D2, L4 and they can be backed at around 1.80.
Looking at the goal line then the stats suggest value in overs. When looking at both sides last 10 home and away matches to similar opposition, in the 20 matches, 12 have seen 3 or more goals, 4 have seen 2 and 4 have seen 1 or less goals scored. My ratings suggest that there is the value in the Over 2.0/2.5 line which can be backed at around 1.93.
This is a vital game for both sides. When looking at the match line then there is certainly a leaning to Manchester United, as Newcastle have lost 8 of their last 9 when hosting the elite sides. However United are hardly setting the world alight away from Old Trafford and I would prefer to see Louis van Gaal’s side priced closer to 2.00 before I could give this a firm stamp of approval. For my trade I am turning to the goal line where there looks some decent value in backing overs. When looking at Manchester United’s 10 away games this season, only 2 have seen 1 or less goal. With only 2 of Newcastle’s last 10 hosting the Top sides containing 1 or less goal, there looks some decent risk v reward backing overs. So my recommended trade is Over 2.0/2.5 goals at around 1.93.
13 Jan 2016 22:00 Liverpool v Arsenal
This Wednesday evening sees one of the matches of the season when Liverpool host Arsenal at Anfield. Kick-off at 20:00 GMT.
Liverpool are coming into this game in some extremely mixed form. Last time out they were beaten 0-2 by West Ham and this defeat left Jürgen Klopp‘s side in 8th place on 30 points, which is 12 points behind today’s opponents. Liverpool’s recent home record reads a reasonable looking W8, D3, L4. However it should be noted that they have only won 4 of their 9 home games this season.
When hosting the elite sides Liverpool seem to raise their game and their recent record again reads a decent looking W6, D0, L4 and here the reds can be backed at around 3.10 however this offers no real value.
The recent head-to-head record favours the away side and reads Liverpool 1 wins, 2 draws and Arsenal 2 wins.
The draw can be backed at around 3.60 and this looks correctly priced.
Arsenal now top the table and the Gunners have won 5 of their last 6 Premier League matches. Here they are coming off a very hard earned 1-0 home victory over struggling Newcastle and Arsenal’s recent away record reads a strong looking W10, D2, L3. However it should be noted that they have only won 1 of their last 4 away matches.
When facing the top half sides of the Premier League Arsene Wenger’s side boast a positive W5, D1, L4 record and here they can be backed at around 2.45. If you do fancy the Gunners to do well then you can keep an element of the draw on your side and they can be backed on the -0.0/0.5 goal handicap at around 2.11.
As far as goals are concerned and with the line set at 2.5 there is a leaning to 3 or more. When looking at both sides last 10 home and away games against similar opposition. In the 20 matches 13 have seen 3 or more goals scored and 7 have seen 2 or less. 9 of Arsenal’s last 15 away games have also finished Over 2.5 goals which can be backed at around 1.92.
This is a fascinating and indeed vital match for both sides. Here my ratings are suggesting that there is value both in the match and goal lines. When looking at the goal line then 5 of Arsenals last 7 away games have seen 3 or more goals scored and Over 2.5 goals looks a decent bet.
For my trade I am turning to the match line. There is no question Liverpool raise their game at home to the elite sides, and Arsenal have hardly covered themselves in glory in very recent away matches. However my ratings are suggesting that Arsenal should be giving away another quarter of a goal. When looking at Liverpool’s recent home record they have recorded 4 victories this season. Barring the victory over Leicester, the other 3 have come against sides that are currently occupying 16th place and below. Here the visitors offers some decent risk v reward on handicap and my recommended trade is Arsenal -0.0/0.5 goals at around 2.11.