RED BULL BRAGANTINO - MIRASSOL
This is priced as a mismatch. Red Bull Bragantino is the shortest price on a book of 1.69 / 4.15 / 5.03 (1 / X / 2), an implied 57.4%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 57.4% / 23.4% / 19.3% on an overround of 3.1%.
Our monitoring has flagged unusual money on this game: 87% of the matched volume has gone on over 2.5 goals. Treat it as a signal to look closer, not as a tip in itself.
The Asian line sits at -0.75 goals, with Red Bull Bragantino giving the start, split 1.90 / 2.02. The handicap is the cleaner read on the expected margin here.
In the league table Red Bull Bragantino sit 11th on 36 points (10W 6D 12L) with Mirassol 15th on 32 points (8W 8D 12L).
Red Bull Bragantino read L-L-D-L-L-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (1W 1D 4L) — poor.
Mirassol read W-D-W-L-D-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (2W 3D 1L) — patchy.
Head to head the record reads 2-3-1 — Red Bull Bragantino wins, draws, then Mirassol wins. Their last meeting finished Mirassol - Red Bull Bragantino: 2-1.
Our last-six model flags 2 qualifying strikes here. Reading Red Bull Bragantino first, then Mirassol, out of their last six: HT U 1.50 4 and 3, GG 4 and 4.
Red Bull Bragantino are without 5 — Alix Vinicius (Out), Rodriguinho (Doubtful), Andres Hurtado (Doubtful), Ignacio Sosa (Suspended), Davi Gomes (Out). Losing Alix Vinicius and Rodriguinho is the kind of absence that moves a price.
Mirassol are without 2 — Jose Aldo (Out), Negueba (Out).
Red Bull Bragantino lean hardest on Fernando Santos (9.5), Ramires (9.5), Fabio Silva de Freitas (9.4) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Rodriguinho is out for Red Bull Bragantino — index 7.3, against 9.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Jose Hurtado is out for Red Bull Bragantino — index 6.0, against 9.0 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Mirassol lean hardest on Willian Machado (9.5), Reinaldo Manoel da Silva (9.2), Igor Formiga (8.3) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
The read: Red Bull Bragantino at 1.69 is the side the market is with, and nothing in the data above argues against it.
This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 13:30 on 7th October 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.