26 Dec 2015 14:45 Stoke City v Man United
Boxing Day lunchtime sees a competitive looking clash when Stoke entertain an out of form Man United at the Britannia Stadium. Kick-Off 12:45 GMT.
Stoke City are coming into this game on the back of a 1-2 defeat at home to Crystal Palace. City have now only won 1 of their last 4 Premier League matches and currently they sit in 11th place on 23 points, which is still only 6 points behind a Champions League place. Stoke City’s recent home record reads a reasonable looking W8, D2, L5.
When facing the top Premier League sides, Mark Hughes' side again boast a positive record which reads W5, D2, L3 and they can be backed at around a value looking 3.30. If you do fancy the Potters to do well then you are probably best keeping the draw on your side and stoke can be backed on the +0.0/0.5 goal handicap at around 1.90.
The recent head-to-head record at the Britannia Stadium favours the visitors and reads Stoke 1 win, 2 Draws and Manchester United 2 wins.
The draw can be backed at around 3.30 and this looks to offer some value and should be given some serious consideration.
Manchester United are coming into this match in something of a mini crisis. They have taken just 2 points from their last 4 matches and have lost at Bournemouth and 1-2 at home to Norwich in their last 2 matches. These defeats have left United in 5th place on 29 points which is 9 behind leaders Leicester. Manager Louis van Gaal now looks to be fighting for his future, and Manchester United’s recent away record reads a reasonable looking W7, D3, L5.
When facing teams of Stoke’s grade Manchester United’s away record again reads a resilient looking W4, D3, L, and they can be backed at an unappealing 2.40.
As far as goals are concerned then the stats point to Overs. With the goal line set at 2.0 and looking at both sides' last 10 home and away games to similar opposition. We see in the 20 matches 13 games have seen 3 or more goals, 5 games have seen 2 and only 2 matches have seen 1 or less goal scored. My ratings suggest that there is value in over 2.0 goals and this can be backed at around 1.83.
This is a fascinating match made even more so by the speculation surrounding Louis van Gaal’s future. Although there looks some good value in overs, it should be noted that Stroke have kept 7 clean sheets in their last 10 Premier League games. For my trade I am turning to the match line. There is no doubt if you are an under pressure manager the last place you want to come to is the Brittania Stadium. Here my ratings are suggesting some good value in the home side and the draw should also be given serious consideration. I will keep this on my side and go with the home side to inflict more misery on Louis van Gaal’s side. So my recommended trade is Stoke City +0.0/0.5 goals at around 1.91.
26 Dec 2015 21:45 Southampton v Arsenal
This Boxing Day evening sees a very attractive looking fixture when Southampton host Arsenal at St Mary's. Kick-Off 19:45 GMT.
Southampton are certainly not showing the form that saw them finish in 7th place last season. Here they are coming off a 0-2 defeat at home to Spurs and the Saints have now lost 4 of their last 5 Premier League matches, having taken just 1 point from their last 15. Currently they sit in 12thplace on 21 points and Southampton’s recent home record reads W7, D3, L5. It should be noted that 4 of these defeats have come in the last 9 matches.
When playing the top Premier Leagues sides, Southampton’s record reads an average looking W2, D3, L5 and Ronald Koeman’s can be backed at around 3.75.
The recent head-to-head record at St Mary’s reads Southampton 1 win, 2 draws and Arsenal 0 wins.
The draw can be backed at around 3.50 and when looking at my ratings this offers no real value.
Arsenal are on a run of decent form and the Gunners have now won 3 Premier League games on the bounce. Here they are coming off a very good 2-1 home victory over Manchester City and Arsene Wenger’s side are now favourites to lift the title. Arsenals recent away record reads a very solid looking W11, D2, L2.
When playing teams of Southampton’s stature, Arsenal’s away record reads a positive looking W5, D2, L3 and they can be backed at around 2.15. If you do fancy the Gunners then you do have the option of keeping an element of the draw on your side and they can be backed -0.0/0.5 goals at around 1.85.
When looking at the goal line then the stats point to the overs. When looking at both sides' last 10 home and away games to similar opposition then we see that 3 or more goals have been seen in 15 matches with only 5 games seeing 2 or less. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 2.05 and my ratings suggest this offers some value.
This looks a good game to end the Boxing Day fixtures. Here my ratings suggest value in the goal and match lines. When looking at the goal line then 9 of Arsenal’s last 10 away to teams of Southampton’s stature have seen 3 or more goals scored and over 2.5 goals looks a decent bet. For my trade I am turning to the match line where the value lies with the visitors. When looking at the home sides last 7 victories, each of these have come against sides placed in the bottom half of the table. Although since returning to the Premier league the Saints are yet to lose against Arsenal there looks some decent reward backing the Gunners on the handicap. So my recommended trade is Arsenal -0.0/0.5 goals at around 1.86.
26 Dec 2015 19:30 Newcastle v Everton
This Boxing Day early evening sees an interesting looking fixture when Newcastle face Everton at St James' Park. Kick-Off 17:30 GMT.
Newcastle are coming off a fairly disappointing 1-1 draw at home to bottom of the table Aston Villa last weekend. Previous to this the Magpies registered victories at home to Liverpool, and away at Spurs. Newcastle now sit in 17th place on 17 points and they are now 2 points clear of the drop zone. Newcastle’s recent home record reads a modest looking W3, D5, L7.
When playing sides of Everton’s stature, Newcastle’s record reads W3, D3, L4 and Steve McClaren’s side can be backed at around 3.25, and this does not look to offer any real value.
The recent head-to-head record at the St James' Park is mixed and reads Newcastle 2 wins, 0 Draw and Everton 3 wins.
The draw can be backed at around 3.70 and this looks to offer some decent value, especially when considering the form of both sides against similar opposition.
Everton are having a very mixed season. Here they are coming off a 2-3 home defeat to league leaders Leicester, however this was only Everton’s 1st defeat in 7 Premier League matches. Currently Everton sit in 10th place on 23 points and their recent away record reads W5, D8, L4.
When facing teams of Newcastle’s grade Everton’s away record reads W4, D4, L2 and the Toffees can be backed at around 2.30. My ratings suggest that this price offers some reasonable value. If you do fancy Roberto Martinez' side to do well then you can keep an element of the draw on your side and Everton can be backed on the -0.0/0.5 goal handicap at around 2.02.
Looking at the goal line, my ratings suggest that there is some small value in the unders. When considering both sides' last 10 home and away matches to similar opposition then we see that 4 or more goals were seen in only 3 matches 6 goals were seen in 6, and 2 or less goals were seen in 11 matches. Under 2.5/3.0 goals can be backed at around 1.95.
This looks an interesting matchup. When it comes to the goal line I am going to leave this alone, as despite there looking value in the unders, all 5 of the recent head-to-head matches have seen 3 or more goals scored. For my trade I am turning to the match line and siding with an Everton side who are very resilient away from home. This season Everton have only lost once away, and that was at Arsenal. Although Everton have drawn 5 of the remaining 7 matches they have certainly been the more threatening side in the majority of matches. Here my ratings suggest that Everton will not lose and although the draw comes into play I will keep this on my side and backing the away side on the handicap offers some decent risk v reward. So my recommended trade is Everton -0.0/0.5 goals at around 2.02.