GERMANY - SERBIA
A heavy favourite, with the price to match. Germany is the shortest price on a book of 1.24 / 6.15 / 13.17 (1 / X / 2), an implied 77.2%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 77.2% / 15.6% / 7.3% on an overround of 4.5%.
Liquidity is strong — €70,400 already matched on the 1X2 market, putting this among the most heavily traded fixtures on the card. Prices in a market that deep are far more reliable than in a thin one.
Germany team news: Kai Havertz and Jamal Musiala are both absent from the Nations League squad.
Germany team news: Jürgen Klopp is likely to overhaul the lineup that played against Greece.
Serbia team news: Serbia are set to make a couple of attacking alterations, with Dusan Tadic and Luka Jovic due to come back into the fold.
Serbia team news: Filip Kostic might also be brought back into the setup by Veljko Paunovic.
Germany are without 4 — Leon Goretzka (Out - injured), Jamal Musiala (Out - injured), Angelo Stiller (Doubtful - injured), Kai Havertz (Out - injured).
Serbia are without 2 — Dusan Vlahovic (Out - injured), Mihailo Ivanovic (Out - injured).
Early lineups are in: Germany set up 4-2-3-1 against 4-2-3-1. See the pitch graphic above for the full XI.
Germany lean hardest on Alexander Nübel (9.3), Karim Adeyemi (8.3), Anton Stach (8.3) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Jamal Musiala is out for Germany — index 6.9, against 9.5 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Kai Havertz is out for Germany — index 8.3, against 7.4 for the best cover we hold at his position. Noticeable.
Serbia lean hardest on Filip Kostic (7.2), Andrija Zivkovic (7.2), Srdjan Babic (7.2) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
The projected score for this one is Germany 2 - 0 Serbia, a home win by 2 with 2 goals in it — short of the 2.5 line.
The read: Germany at 1.24 is short enough that the value, if there is any, sits on the handicap or in the goals market rather than the outright.
This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 20:30 on 30th September 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.