After winning their previous 2 Serie A matches, Udinese were bought back down to earth after a 0-3 defeat away at Fiorentina. This defeat left Stefano Colantuono’s side in 13th place on 18 points, which is just 4 points above the drop zone. Udinese’s recent home record reads a mixed looking W4, D3, L8. It should be noted that Udinese are now unbeaten in 4 home matches.
When hosting teams of Inters stature, Udinese’s record again reads an average looking W3, D1, L6 and they can be backed at around 4.30 and this looks priced a little low.
The recent head-to-head record at the Stadio Communale is mixed and reads Udinese 2 wins, 0 Draws and Inter 3 wins.
The draw can be backed at around 3.45 and this does not look to offer any real value or appeal.
Inter Milan have made an excellent start to the season. Roberto Mancini’s side have now won 5 of their last 6 Serie A matches, and they are coming off a 1-0 home win over Genoa. This victory sent Inter to the top of the table on 33 points and they are 1 point ahead of 2nd place Fiorentina. Inter’s recent away record reads a strong looking W9, D3, L3.
When facing the mid table sides, Inter’s away form is again resilient and reads W5, D4, L1 and they can be backed at around 2.05 and this looks to offer some solid value.
As far as goals are concerned and with the line set at 2/2.5 then there is certainly a leaning to overs. When looking at both sides last 10 home and away matches to similar opposition, then 3 or more goals have been seen in 10 matches, 2 goals have been seen in 4, and 1 or less goals have been seen in 6. When looking at the general stats then 3 or more goals have been seen in 10 of Inter’s last 16 away games. Over 2.0/2.5 goals can be backed at around 1.96.
This looks a good match up and my ratings are suggesting value in both the match and goal lines. When it comes to the goal line, then normally we are looking at an entertaining fixture, and all 5 of the recent head-to-head matches have seen 3 or more goals scored. For my trade I am turning to the match line and siding with the away side. Udinese are certainly not the side they were and when hosting teams placed in the top 6 they have lost 7 of their last 12, whilst only winning 1. Inter when visiting teams placed in the bottom half of the table have won 7 of their last 8 and they look good value to still be topping the table after this round of matches. So my recommended trade is Inter Milan -0.5 goals at around 2.05.
Juventus v Fiorentina
Juventus made a terrible start to the season, only taking 5 points from a possible 18. However they have certainly turned things around and Massimillano Allegri’s side have now won their last 5 Serie A matches. After comfortably beating Lazio 2-0 in Rome last weekend, the champions now sit in 5th place on 27 points and they are now just 6 points behind leaders Inter. Juve’s recent home record reads a very strong looking W11, D3, L1.
When hosting the second tier sides of the Serie A, once again Juventus have an excellent record that reads W8, D2, L0 and they can be backed at around 1.69. Despite this good run of form this price offers no real value.
The recent head-to-head record at the Juventus Stadium is dominated by the home side and reads Juventus 4 wins, 1 Draw and Fiorentina 0 wins.
The draw can be backed at around 3.70 and this looks to offer some value.
Under the guidance of new manager Paulo Sousa, Fiorentina are having an excellent season. They are coming off a very comfortable 3-0 win at home to Udinese, and after going 6 games without defeat Fiorentina now sit in 2nd place on 32 points. Fiorentina’s recent away record reads a decent looking W8, D2, L5.
When facing the top sides of Serie A, Fiorentina boast a fairly poor record which reads W3, D0, L7, and they can be backed at around 6.50 which offers some decent value. If you do fancy Fiorentina to do well then you are best keeping an element of the 1 goal loss on your side and they can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.5/1 goal at around 2.08.
As far as goals are concerned then we have mixed stats. When looking at both sides last 10 respective home and away games against similar opposition we can see that in the 20 matches 3 or more goals were seen in 9 matches, 2 goals were seen in 6, whilst 1 or less goals were scored in 5. In general play 10 of Fiorentina’s last 15 away games have seen 3 or more goals. My ratings suggest value in over 2.0/2.5 goals which can be backed at around 1.93.
This is an intriguing game. Firstly looking at the goal line, although my ratings suggest value in over 2.0/2.5 goals, only 6 of Juve’s last 16 home games have seen 3 or more goals. For my trade I am turning to the match line where the value is with the away side. There is no question Juve are rightful favourites and when looking at Fiorentina’s last 5 away defeats, 4 have come against Napoli (Twice), Juve and Lazio and the stats suggest they do not perform well away at the top sides. However under Paulo Sousa, Fiorentina are certainly a more resilient side and my ratings suggest they should only be receiving half a goal here, and so my recommended trade for this game is Fiorentina + 0.5/1.0 goals at around 2.07.
Napoli v Roma
Despite losing 2-3 away at Bologna last weekend, Maurizzio Sarri’s side have made a strong start to the season and previous to this defeat Napoli won 8 of their previous 9 matches. Currently Napoli sit in 3rd place on 31 points, which is only 2 behind leaders Inter Milan. Napoli’s recent home record reads a very strong looking W11, D3, L1 and it should also be noted that Napoli have won their last 6 home matches.
When hosting the elite Serie A sides, again Napoli’s record is strong and reads W7, D2, L1 and they can be backed at around 1.64 to win this game, which when looking at my ratings offers no value.
The recent head-to-head record at the San Paolo favours the home side, and reads Napoli 4 wins, 0 Draws and Roma 1 win.
The draw can be backed at around 4.00 and my ratings suggest this offers some very good value.
Roma are also having a decent season, however they have only won 1 of their last 5 league matches. Here they are coming off an unlucky 1-1 draw away at Torino, where the home side equalised in injury time. Roma currently sit in 4th place on 28 points and their recent away record reads a resilient W6, D5, L4.
When facing teams from the top 2 tiers of the Serie A, Roma boast a mixed away record, which reads W4, D2, L4 and they can be backed at around a value looking 6.25. If you do fancy Roma to do well, then you can keep the 1 goal loss on your side and they can be backed on the + 1.0 goal handicap at around 1.92.
As far as goals are concerned then the stats point to the Unders. When looking at both sides last 10 home and away games to similar opposition, 6 of the 20 matches have seen 4 or more goals, 6 games have seen 3, and 10 have seen 2 or less goals scored. However it should be noted that only 4 of Napoli’s last 16 home games have seen 2 or less goals, and my ratings suggest value in over 2.5/3.0 goals and this can be backed at around 1.88.
This is an excellent matchup between 2 sides that certainly have title aspirations. Here my ratings suggest value both in the match and goal lines. When looking at the goal line, although there is value in over 2.5/3.0 goals, only 1 of Roma’s last 10 visiting the top sides have seen 4 or more goals scored.
For my trade I am turning to match line where the value is with the visitors. When looking at Roma’s last 24 away games they have lost only 5 matches and only 1 was by 2 or more goals and that was in this fixture last season. Despite Roma’s very recent form, in a game where the draw has to be given some serious consideration there looks decent risk v reward backing them on the handicap. So my recommended trade is Roma +1.0 goals at around 1.92.