MALLORCA - ALMERIA
The market has a firm view on this one. Mallorca is the shortest price on a book of 2.10 / 3.34 / 3.88 (1 / X / 2), an implied 46.1%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 46.1% / 29.0% / 24.9% on an overround of 3.3%.
The draw is unusually well backed at 3.34 (29.0%), which normally points to a cagey, low-scoring game rather than an open one.
Liquidity is strong — €12,751 already matched on the 1X2 market, putting this among the most heavily traded fixtures on the card. Prices in a market that deep are far more reliable than in a thin one.
Our monitoring has flagged unusual money on this game: 84% of the matched volume has gone on Mallorca to win. Treat it as a signal to look closer, not as a tip in itself.
In the league table Mallorca sit 4th on 13 points (4W 1D 1L) with Almeria 5th on 12 points (4W 0D 2L).
Mallorca read W-W-D-W-L-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (4W 1D 1L) — a strong recent run.
Almeria read W-W-W-L-L-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (4W 0D 2L) — a strong recent run.
Head to head the record reads 3-2-1 — Mallorca wins, draws, then Almeria wins. Their last meeting finished Mallorca - Almeria: 2-2.
Our last-six model flags 2 qualifying strikes here. Reading Mallorca first, then Almeria, out of their last six: U 2.50 5 and 4, NG 6 and 5.
Confirmed lineups are in: Mallorca set up 4-4-2 against 4-2-3-1. See the pitch graphic above for the full XI.
Mallorca lean hardest on Arnau Tenas (9.5), Manu Morlanes (9.2), Alex Sala (9.1) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Almeria lean hardest on Andres Fernandez (9.5), Federico Bonini (8.5), Alex Munoz (8.3) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Played at Mallorca Son Moix Stadium, capacity 26,020.
The read: Mallorca at 2.10 is the side the market is with, and nothing in the data above argues against it.
This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 15:00 on 27th September 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.