Jose Aldo defends his Featherweight title on Sunday morning against Conor McGregor at the MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada. Event starts at 03:00 GMT.
Aldo vs McGregor Prediction
Next to their statistical breakdown on the UFC's official website, each fighter signed to the organisation was presumably asked to briefly list their strengths as mixed martial artists. José Aldo's 'summary' states the Brazilian as possessing "very strong ground game, knockout power, stamina." Conor McGregor's simply reads "my belief."
On Saturday December 12th, explosive pound-for-pound kingpin José Aldo seeks to extend an undefeated record that spans just over a decade, as he defends a World featherweight title for the tenth successive time since stopping Mike Brown for the WEC strap in 2009. 'Junior' is a freak; electrifying speed and precision in all four limbs, with feared low kicks known to render opponents numb and immobile for up to two months after they've been systematically decimated. Simply put, José Aldo Junior is the only featherweight champion the UFC has ever known.
And yet careering towards him from the opposite end of the octagon at the MGM Grand Garden Arena this Saturday night, barking, pontificating, maniacally grinning, will be a man who believes the world's pound-for-pound maestro is already beaten.
Stats
Of Conor McGregor's 18 victories, 16 have come by KO or TKO, with his lone submission arriving back in 2012. 13 of these stoppage victories arrived in the first round. In 20 professional contests, the 27-year-old Irishman has remarkably still only seen 27 rounds of action.
His opponent has fought 30 rounds in his last seven scraps alone, and 65 total during his storied 26-fight career which spans back as far as 2004. In the intervening 11 years, José Aldo has amassed a total of 14 victories by KO or TKO, with two submissions. Nine of his wins have arrived via the judges' scorecards, including five of his seven total contests since the WEC merged with the UFC in October 2010.
Both men land 44% of their strikes on average, with the champion from Manaus avoiding 72% of opponents' shots to the Dubliner's 64%. Since Chad Mendes put McGregor on his back four times in July, Aldo also possesses the better takedown defence on paper – and, frankly, in the octagon – avoiding 91% of takedown attempts.
The challenger, as he tends to, carries with him a 4-inch reach advantage.
The Breakdown
Everybody is talking about José Aldo's debilitating leg-kicks versus McGregor's wide posture, but what few have examined is the extra distance that Aldo's right leg must travel to connect with McGregor's lead right leg in a southpaw stance.
It's notable, too, that – unlike most unarmed combatants - 'The Notorious' one tends to avert his gaze towards an attacker's body, as opposed to their eyes; he's probably not lying when he claims that each opponent is 'just another blank face'. Should Aldo seek to take his almost genetic footballing proficiency to McGregor's standing leg, it may be telegraphed. It will undoubtedly be expected by John Kavanagh and McGregor's corner, and McGregor himself has hinted that he may 'want' Aldo to target that right leg; he will certainly have a split second longer to turn his knee inward in defence than would an orthodox fighter – a manoeuvre which, pain-wise, can turn the tables on a stiffened, swinging shin.
However, Aldo's kicking game is almost surreal in its speed and efficiency; it seems unlikely that the Interim champion will avoid all pedal assaults, and all it takes is one or two landed legs from the Brazilian to instantaneously reduce an opponent to 80%. And 70%. And 60%. A slow-killing poison.
And as we saw when McGregor beat both Holloway and Mendes with variably injured knees – though he adapted and overcame differing degrees of adversity - his elasticity is integral to both his defensive and offensive effectiveness.
And yet, where Aldo conceivably carries the advantage with his kicking game and general speed, it's his Irish opponent who carries the greater purchase in his fists. McGregor is simply nuclear at featherweight. Every combination is observatory, calculated and precise. Every newly-adapted left to the body thudding. He lands first and feints later, a pattern which opens the door before his straight left hand throws away the key.
McGregor's striking game is more about timing and angles than pugilistic speed – an area which Aldo has a major edge - and so for the first time in his career, the explosive Irishman will likely have to take two shots from his opponent to land one concussive blow of his own in almost every early exchange.
SBG teammate Chris Fields says he's never seen 'The Notorious' dropped – or even wobbled – by anyone, playfully claiming the Crumlin man's "fat head" cushions every blow. Whatever about behind-closed-doors throwdowns, McGregor's whiskers have certainly proven infallible in competitive combat. The brash Dub has taken over 60 shots flush in his last four rounds of action and literally laughed them off, most notably last time out against Chad Mendes – who himself rocked and dropped Aldo a couple of times in their rematch last October.
McGregor is an anomaly at the weight - a 160-pound fighter, give or take, condensed within a 145-pound frame. And that size advantage will never appear more evident than when he shrugs playfully and marches through lasered combinations from his dynamic adversary this Saturday.
On his feet, Aldo is remarkably durable. On his feet - at 145 pounds at least - McGregor is probably immovable. It could prove the telling factor in this feverishly anticipated contest.
Prediction
Expect fireworks early as a focused Aldo furiously tees off on an unwavering McGregor, who'll beckon him forward for more. Expect, too, more body work from the Dubliner than we've seen previously; if the public have noticed Aldo's mobility faltering somewhat during the latter rounds in recent years, then Kavanagh and McGregor will look to bank it through straight left hands and toe-pointed kicks to the bladder and solar plexus - the kind of gnawing shots that can be seen as a solid investment, with returns arriving during the championship rounds.
Ultimately, however, these are rounds we probably won't get to see.
Size matters. By round 2, McGregor's power will have garnered enough respect from a more weary Aldo to earn him the coveted range in which he can inflict optimal harm. The fresher Irishman will begin to gradually impose his will on the battleworn champion, stalking him towards the fence – albeit while having to withstand a plethora of head-snapping shots from the 29-year-old Brazilian.
José Aldo is an exceptional champion, but all of Conor McGregor's UFC opponents have a common cross to bear; regardless of the overstated, pre-fight antics, they've lost the psychological battle inside the octagon. He says 'they all break', and in truth, they all do. It's just human nature when a fighter lands a shot that would have beheaded former opponents, but instead of a twitching heap, sees their physically bigger tormentor, unscathed, grinning ominously back in their direction.
In a rock 'em sock 'em-type affair, the immovable object will eventually mow down the durable force. After three barn-burning rounds at the MGM Grand Garden Arena this Saturday night, 'The Notorious' Conor McGregor will finally be able to discard of his Interim featherweight belt.
Recommended Trade: Conor McGregor to win at roughly 1.8.
Best Of The Rest
Urijah Faber vs Frankie Saenz
The Californian out of Team Alpha Male should pulverize gatekeeper Saenz, a year his junior. This is a soft-touch return for Faber after a gallant defeat to Frankie Edgar last May. At his more natural weight of 135lbs, the 36-year-old should ground Saenz and finish him comprehensively inside the distance.
Recommended Trade: Urijah Faber at roughly 1.2.
Jeremy Stephens vs Max Holloway
In an intriguing clash of former roommates, featherweight no.7 Max Holloway – a former Conor McGregor opponent – will need to avoid what he labeled the 'scary' power of no.12-ranked Stephens. 'Blessed' is riding a seven-fight UFC winning streak (six stoppages), while his former sparring partner Stephens scored one of the most memorable flying-knee knockouts in recent history at UFC 189 in July. Ultimately, despite Stephens' recent leaps – both inside the octagon and in the rankings- Holloway should edge his good friend on the scorecards in an exciting clash of styles.
Recommended trade: Max Holloway at roughly 1.2.
Gunnar Nelson vs Demian Maia
In what might be the second-most tantalising clash on the entire card, SBG's ice-man pits his wits against arguably the greatest Brazilian jiu jitsu practitioner in UFC history. The Dublin-based Icelandic ground-hog has 10 submissions in 14 victories, but faces his stiffest test to date in Maia, a 38-year-old who's grappled with a whole host of UFC legends over an 8-year career with the organisation. The 27-year old Nelson - ranked at no.12 in the welterweight standings - enters as a slight underdog, and Maia has seen off two top 15 fighters already this year. In truth, despite Nelson's progress in McGregor's camp, it's difficult to find an area in which he can dominate his Brazilian opponent. He may have enough to survive on the ground, but Maia should edge this on points in a tense affair.
Recommended trade: Demian Maia at roughly 1.7
Yoel Romero vs Ronaldo Souza
Two beasts, one winner. Brazilian Souza will take the explosive Romero to the ground, and though a former wrestling champ, the Cuban will be no match for Souza's ability to find some form of triangle from almost anywhere. This will be a seriously entertaining middleweight clash while it lasts.
Recommended trade: Ronaldo Souza at roughly 1.7
Luke Rockhold vs Chris Weidman
Coming off three submission victories on the spin, 31-year-old former Strikeforce champion Rockhold is considered very much a live dog in his middleweight title clash with 13-fight unbeaten Chris Weidman. He probably shouldn't be. New York native Weidman, also 31, is simply too well-rounded to fall to his friend-turned-foe – with six KOs and three submissions to his name, he should be able to stay on his feet and consistently beat Rockhold to the strike en route to either a late stoppage or clear unanimous decision victory.
Recommended trade: Chris Weidman at roughly 1.72