06 Dec 2015 20:00 Texans at Bills
The Houston Texans (6-5) travel to the Buffalo Bills (5-6) on Sunday in a game carrying big AFC wild card implications.
Last week’s preview was Minnesota at Atlanta. This week’s preview is Houston at Buffalo. What do the two games have in common? Each feature a match-up of two teams going in the complete opposite direction.
Houston make the trip north to Buffalo on Sunday mid-day looking to move to 7-5, a far cry from where they were 5 weeks ago when their season was dead and buried amidst a tardy QB issue, a leaky defense and a 2-5 record. With their record turned around, a now dominant defense and solid consistent QB play (plus, no sign of Ryan Mallet anymore), the Texans know that they control their own destiny.
Remember the time Houston allowed 44 points against Miami, Ryan Tannehill finished with a 95% completion rating & 4 TDs and Lamar Miller ran for 175 yards and had two scores? Seems like a long time ago doesn’t it? Since then, Houston and their defense haven’t looked back. They’ve won their four games since and gave up only 6 points to their opponents in three of these. They currently occupy the last playoff spot in the AFC race, and are joint top of their division with the Colts who face a tough game against the Steelers in Primetime on Sunday.
Last week against New Orleans, the Texans didn’t allow the Saints offense into the end-zone, the first time that’s happened in over a decade. Drew Brees was held without a TD pass, only the second time that’s happened since 2009 and the Saints racked up just 6 points and 268 total yards. JJ Watt & co have found their rhythm and the defense we thought we’d see at the start of the year has emerged. Watt once again leads the NFL in sacks with 13.5 and was hailed as “the best player in the NFL” by Sunday’s opponent’s Head Coach Rex Ryan. And to think, if only Watt had agreed to make up a disease he could have fallen to Rex Ryan in New York during the 2011 draft...
They’ve been aided by their offense who had only been stagnantly producing in the early season games. Everyone knows about DeAndre Hopkins and the incredible season he’s having, listed in the top 5 of all major receiving categories, but it’s been the steady play of QB Brian Hoyer that has been the bright spark on the Houston offense in recent weeks. Hopkins had a season-low 36 yards receiving against New Orleans but Hoyer spread the ball to 9 different receivers and tossed 2 scores. Behind the occasionally-dangerous running of Alfred Blue, the Houston offense has also been contributing to the team’s success over the past 5 games.
They’ll be up against, dare I say it, the mediocre defense of the Buffalo Bills. All the pre-season hype around the Bills defense hasn’t come to the fore and they languish around the middle of the defensive rankings. Contrary to any Rex Ryan-led team, it’s the offense who are the strongest unit for Rex’s men. QB Tyrod Taylor won’t pick you apart with short to medium throws and wear your defense down, but rather is more likely to hit you on a long-ball lob to Sammy Watkins for six. 10 of his 14 TD throws this season have been 20 yards or more, and Watkins’ speed is a constant threat, exemplified by his 168 yards and 2 TDs in last week’s loss vs. the Chiefs. Backing them up they have LeSean McCoy who perhaps hasn’t lit the Ralph Wilson ablaze as he was expected since coming over from Philly, but is certainly an effective tool in slowing down the Texans’ pass-rush.
With all sides considered, the signs point to a Houston win in Buffalo on Sunday for me. Their defense is simply crushing teams, and the Bills’ offense won’t be able to match up to them, particularly if they’re chasing the game late on. Houston’s offense can do a decent job and have proven their worth in recent weeks; up against an average Bills’ defense, I give them a slight advantage. They can win this one, and giving them a field goal head-start is a bonus.
06 Dec 2015 20:00 Jets at Giants
It's an all-New York clash this Sunday as the Giants look to take hold of the NFC East, while the Jets go in search of wild card status.
The G-Men have a good chance to win the NFC East and go to the playoffs despite their losing record. Last week’s loss to the Redskins levels the field with Washington, but the Giants still look like the team best-placed to emerge from the league’s worst division.
The Giants have weapons, good weapons. Odell Beckham Jr. is capable of pulling off the most spectacular catches in the game at the moment. He’s been questioning the league’s rules on catching lately too, saying that they need to be simplified. Beckham’s going to look to stretch the limits of the rules again this Sunday, so expect some big grabs. Teams pass on the Jets a lot too, with 39.5 pass attempts per game coming against them. Rueben Randle is going to have to show up big this Sunday too to give Eli the options he didn’t have against the Redskins. Of Manning’s 51 passes against Washington, 18 went to Beckham. That’s 35 percent of a serious passing attack going to one player. Randle needs to get to work this Sunday and I think he does.
I like Rashad Jennings, but I think Tom Coughlin needs to like him more. You can call him crazy for sleeping in a $18,000 hyperbaric chamber, but the guy can run. The Giants gave the ball to 4 different running backs on their first 3 offensive series against the Redskins. Jennings gained 5 yards on the first play, but had the wind taken out of his sails when Vereen showed up on the next play. Jennings is as reliable with the ball as they come too having not fumbled since 2012. The Giants over-rely on Beckham in the passing game, but under-rely on Jennings in the running game. They’re not far off-balance, just a few tweaks and this offense can really get going.
The Jets are right in contention for a wild card spot, but the Giants are gunning for the division title, which they will need to win to make the playoffs. The Jets aren’t a bad outfit, but I can never trust them. What they used to be known for under Rex Ryan seems to be fading. They let a pretty awful Dolphins side rack up 20 points in the latter quarters of last week’s game. The Giants can mount a comeback as good as anyone, so the Jets will have to change their ways big time to win this on Sunday. Darrelle Revis is far from the shutdown corner he used to be too and it seems most top receivers can have a good day against the CB.
The Jets are 4-17 straight up in their last 21 games against NFC East opposition. They’ve also struggled against the spread in their last 6, going 1-4-1. I love the value on the G-Men here. The Giants are capable of both beating and losing to anyone at the moment. Last week’s loss hurt and I think they win well at home against their rivals with a point to prove. Take the Giants +2.5.