05 Dec 2015 19:30 Chelsea v Bournemouth
This Saturday evening sees Chelsea host promoted Bournemouth at Stamford Bridge. Kick-off at 17:30 GMT.
After losing 3 Premier League games on the bounce, Jose Mourinho’s side have now steadied the ship by beating Norwich 1-0 and drawing 0-0 with Spurs at White Hart Lane last weekend. The consecutive clean sheets will certainly have pleased Mourinho, and Chelsea now sit in 14th place on 15 points, which is still 12 points off a top 4 place. Chelsea’s recent home record reads a decent looking W8, D4, L3
When hosting promoted sides Chelsea’s recent record reads a strong looking W8, D2, L0, and here they can be backed at around 1.39 and this price can be enhanced by backing the blues on the -1/1.5 goal handicap at around 1.92.
This is the first time the 2 sides have met in the Premier League.
The draw can be backed at around 5.25 and this neither offers value nor appeal.
Bournemouth are coming into this match after a very exciting 3-3 draw at home to Everton. This point left Eddie Howe’s team sitting in 18th place on 10 points, and their recent away record reads W1, D1, L5.
Bournemouth can be backed at around 9.45 and this offers no real value.
As far as goals are concerned then looking at the stats for this season we may see an entertaining affair. When looking at both sides respective opening home (7 Chelsea) and Away (7 Bournemouth) games this season. We can see in the 14 games, 4 or more goals were seen in 7 matches, 3 goals were seen in 2, and 2 or less goals were seen in 5 matches. Despite the stats pointing to goals my ratings are suggesting there is some decent value backing under 2.5/3 goals at around 2.10.
This is a vital match for both sides, especially Chelsea who will be looking to climb the table as quickly as possible. Here my ratings are suggesting value in both the match and goal lines. When it comes to the goals although the ratings suggest value in unders, my major concern is the fact that Bournemouth have conceded 18 goals in their opening 7 away matches.
For my trade I am turning to the match line, where there looks some decent value, along with risk v reward backing Chelsea on the handicap. 5 of Chelsea’s last 8 victories over promoted sides have been by 2 or more goals, as have 3 of Bournemouth’s 5 away defeats this season. Bournemouth have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 6 away games and 5 of these matches came against sides placed 8th and below. With Chelsea looking far more resilient in defence, this could be an ideal opportunity to gain a vital 3 points. So my recommended trade for this game is Chelsea -1.0/1.5 at around 1.92.
06 Dec 2015 18:00 Newcastle v Liverpool
This Sunday afternoon sees a traditionally entertaining fixture when Newcastle host Liverpool at St James Park Kick off 16:00 GMT.
Newcastle have made an extremely poor start to the season, and they are coming off a terrible 1-5 defeat away at Crystal Palace. This defeat left Steve McClaren’s side in 19th place on 10 points and 2 points from safety. Newcastle have only won 1 home game this season and their recent record at St James Park reads a very average W3, D5, L7.
When playing the 2nd tier sides Newcastle’s record reads W2, D1, L7 and they can be backed at around 5.70.
The recent head-to-head record at St James Park surprisingly favours the home side, and reads Newcastle 3 wins, 1 Draw and Liverpool 1 win.
If you do fancy Newcastle to do well here then your best option is certainly to keep an element of the 1 goal loss on your side, and they can be backed +0.5/1.0 goal on the Asian handicap at around 2.10.
The draw can be backed at around 4.10 and this looks to offer some value.
Liverpool under new manager Jurgen Klopp are putting a nice little run together. After registering a 1-0 victory over Swansea, which was Klopp’s first league victory at Anfield, Liverpool have now won 3 of their last 4 matches. The reds now sit in 6th place on 23 points, just 6 behind leaders Manchester City. Liverpool’s recent away record reads a resilient looking W5, D6, L4.
When facing teams of Newcastle’s grading, Liverpool’s away record reads a strong looking W7, D1, L2 and they can be backed at around 1.67. This price can be enhanced by backing them on the -0.5/1.0 goal handicap at around 1.90.
Looking at the goal line then we are presented with some very mixed stats. When looking at Newcastle’s home record, 8 of their last 10 at home to teams of Liverpool’s stature have seen 3 or more goals. However when looking at Liverpool’s away form to similar opposition then 9 of 10 matches have seen 2 or less goals. My ratings suggest that there is the smallest value in the Over 2.5 line which can be backed at around 1.85.
This is a very tough game to work out. Here my ratings suggest value in Over 2.5 goals. However we are presented with some extremely mixed stats when looking at both sides' recent form that I would suggest leaving this alone. For my trade I am turning to the match line where once again my ratings are suggesting the game is priced pretty much spot on. Although I see some value in the draw, I am going to go with the momentum of the away side. In Liverpool’s last 2 away games they have beaten Man City 4-1 and Chelsea 3-1. When facing sides placed in the Top 6 Newcastle have now lost 8 of their last 9. So my recommended trade is Liverpool -0.5/1.0 goal at around 1.90.