29 Nov 2015 21:30 Sevilla v Valencia
Sunday evening sees a very entertaining looking La Liga fixture where Sevilla take on Valencia at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan. Kick-Off 19:30 GMT.
After finishing in 5th place last season, Sevilla have made a relatively poor start to this campaign, and here they are coming off a poor 0-2 defeat away to Real Sociedad and currently they sit in 11th place on 15 points, which is 6 behind 4th place Villarreal. However after losing their first 2 home games of the season Sevilla have now won 4 home games on the bounce and their recent home record reads a solid looking W10, D2, L3.
When playing the second tier La Liga sides, Sevilla boast a resilient record which reads W3, D5, L2 and they can be backed at around 1.77 and this price offers no real value.
The recent head-to-head record at Sevilla favours the home side and reads Sevilla 3 Wins, 2 Draws and Valencia 0 wins.
The draw can be backed at around 4.00 and this looks to offer some decent value.
Valencia have also made a disappointing start to the season and here they are coming off a 1-1 draw at home to promoted Las Palmas. This draw has left them in 7th place on 19 points. Valencia’s recent away record reads an average looking W6, D5, L4.
When facing teams of Sevilla’s stature, Valencia’s record reads a resilient looking W1, D5, L4 and they can be backed at around 4.75. if you do fancy Nuno Santo’s side to do well here then you are certainly best keeping an element of the 1 goal loss on your side and they can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.5/1.0 goals at around 1.93.
Looking at my ratings and with the goal line set at 2.5/3.0 then we have some mixed stats. When looking at both sides' last 10 home and away matches to similar opposition, in the 20 matches we have the following: 4 games have seen 4 or more goals, 1 game has seen 3 goals, and 15 matches have seen 2 or less goals scored. On the flip side only 3 of Sevilla’s last 15 home games have seen 2 or less goals scored. Here my ratings suggest value in Over 2.5/3.0 goals at around 1.86.
Although my ratings are suggesting value in Over 2.5/3.0 goals, none of Sevilla’s last 10 at home to the 2nd tier sides have seen 4 or more goals scored, and 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches have also finished with 2 or less goals. For my trade I am siding with the away team. Although Valencia have lost 3 of their last 4 away games, Sevilla are priced too low here. If we look at the last 5 seasons when hosting Top 6 finishing sides, Sevilla have only won 9 of 27 and Valencia have only lost 11 of 26. Here it is hard to make an argument for backing Sevilla at their current price, so my recommended trade is Valencia +0.5/1.0 goals at around 1.93.