28 Nov 2015 21:45 AC Milan v Sampdoria
This Saturday evening sees a Serie A matches when AC Milan host Sampdoria at the San Siro Stadium. Kick-Off 19:45 GMT.
Milan are once again having an up and down season. Here they are coming into this match on the back of a 0-1 loss at champions Juventus. Currently Milan sit in 6th place on 20 points which is now 8 points away from a Champions League qualifying place. Milan’s recent home record reads a decent looking W9, D4, L2.
When hosting teams of Sampdoria’s grading, Milan again boast a decent record that reads W6, D2, L2 and they can be backed at around 1.60 which offers no real value.
The recent head-to-head record at the San Siro reads Milan 2 wins, 1 Draw and Sampdoria 1 win.
The draw can be backed at around 4.10 and this looks to offer some decent value.
After losing 0-2 at home to Fiorentina before the international break, Sampdoria manager flew out to Dubai and claimed he was on a break. During this time he was sacked and replaced by ex Fiorentina manager Vincenzo Montella. Montella took charge in his first game away at Udinese last weekend, where Sampdoria went down 0-1. This defeat left Sampdoria in 12th place on 16 points and they have now only won 1 of their last 8 Serie A matches. Sampdoria’s recent away record reads an average looking W3, D4, L8.
When facing teams from the second tier of Serie A Sampdoria’s away form reads again an underwhelming W1, D3, L6 and they can be backed at around 6.50. If you do fancy Sampdoria to do well, then you are certainly best keeping the 1 goal loss on your side and they can be backed +1.0 goal at around 1.90.
As far as goals are concerned then the stats point to overs. When looking at both sides' last 10 home and away games to similar opposition. then we that in the 20 matches 12 have seen 3 or more goals, whilst 8 have contained 2 or less. Here my ratings suggest value in Over 2.5 goals which can be backed at around 1.95.
This is an interesting match up and first impressions suggest a comfortable night for the hosts. However despite a large inject of new players, Milan are still struggling to find any sort of consistency and once again it looks as though they are going to under-achieve. Although Sampdoria are yet to win away this season, they rarely get turned over completely and they have only conceded 3 or more goals twice in 16 away games. Here they are coming up against a Milan side that have only kept 2 clean sheets this season. As previously stated Milan are rightful favourites but my ratings are suggesting that they should only be giving away half a goal as opposed to the full goal. So my recommended trade is Sampdoria +1.0 goal at around 1.90.
30 Nov 2015 22:00 Napoli v Inter Milan
This Monday evening sees a big Serie A clash when Napoli host top of the table Inter Milan at the San Paolo Stadium. Kick-Off 20:00 BST
After only winning 1 of their opening 5 matches, Napoli have now won 7 of their last 8 Serie A matches. Here they are coming off a comfortable 2-0 victory away at Verona and currently they sit in 2nd place on 28 points which is just 2 points behind today’s opponents. Napoli’s recent home record reads a very solid looking W11, D3, L1.
When hosting teams of Inter’s stature, again Napoli’s record is strong and reads W7, D1, L2 and they can be backed at around 1.70 to win this game, which when looking at my ratings offers no real value.
The recent head-to-head record at the San Paolo favours the home side and reads Napoli 3 wins, 2 Draws and Inter 0 wins.
The draw can be backed at around 3.90 and my ratings suggest this offers some decent value.
Inter Milan are having a very solid season, and after beating promoted Frosinone 4-0 Roberto Mancini’s side have now won 4 Serie A matches on the bounce and have only lost once this season. Currently Inter top the league on 30 points and their recent away record reads a solid W9, D3, L3. It should also be noted that they are undefeated away from home this season.
When facing teams from the top 2 tiers of the Serie A, Inter boast a mediocre away record, which reads W1, D4, L5 and they can be backed at around a value looking 5.85. If you do fancy Inter to carry on their good form, then you can keep an element of the 1 goal loss on your side and they can be backed on the +0.5/1.0 goal handicap at around 2.05.
As far as goals are concerned then my ratings & the stats point to the overs. When looking at both sides' last 10 home and away games to similar opposition, 15 of the 20 matches have seen 3 or more goals, and only 5 have seen 2 or less goals scored. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at around 1.82.
This should be a very good game between 2 in-form sides. Here my ratings suggest value in both the match and goal lines. When looking at the goal line there looks good value backing Over 2.5 goals. 9 of Napoli’s last 11 home games and 9 of their last 10 hosting teams of Inters stature have seen 3 or more goals, as have 9 of Inters last 15 away games. For my trade I am turning to the match line where the value lies with Inter. Under Roberto Mancini Inter have only lost 4 of their last 20 away matches and only 2 of these were by 2 or more goals and at their current price there looks to be some decent risk v reward backing them on the handicap. So my recommended trade is Inter Milan +0.5/1.0 goal at around 2.05.