21 Nov 2015 21:45 Juventus v AC Milan
This Saturday evening sees a high profile Serie A match when Juventus host AC Milan at the Juventus Stadium, Turin. Kick-off at 19:45 GMT.
After winning just 1 of their opening 6 Serie A matches, Juventus have now won 3 of their last 4 and are coming off a decent 3-1 victory away at Empoli. Massimillano Allegri’s side now sit in 7th place on 18 points, which is now 9 points behind leaders Fiorentina. Juve’s recent home form reads an extremely strong looking W11, D3, L1.
When hosting the second tier sides of the Serie A, once again Juventus have an excellent record that reads W8, D2, L0 and they can be backed at around 1.63, and even at this price this still looks to offer some value. If you do fancy Juve to do well here then their price can be enhanced by backing them on the -0.5/1.0 handicap at around 1.83.
The recent head-to-head record at the Juventus Stadium is dominated by the home side and reads Juventus 4 wins, 0 Draws, and Milan 1 Win.
The draw can be backed at around 3.9 and this does not look to offer any real value.
Despite drawing 0-0 at home against Atalanta last time out, Milan are on a decent run of form and are now undefeated in 5 Serie A matches which included a 3-1 victory at Lazio. Currently Milan sit in 6th place, which is 1 place above Juve on 20 points. Milan’s recent away record reads W4, D3, L8.
When facing the top sides of Serie A Milan boast a poor record which reads W0, D3, L7. And they can be backed at around 6.90. Here, you can always elect to keep an element of the 1 goal loss on your side and Milan can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.5/1.0 at around 2.13.
As far as goals are concerned then the stats point to overs. When looking at both sides last respective 10 respective home and away games against similar opposition we can see that in the 20 matches 3 or more goals were seen in 9 matches, 2 goals were seen in 5, whilst 1 or less goals were scored in 6. In general play 9 of Milan’s last 15 away games have seen 3 or more goals. My ratings suggest value in over 2/2.5 goals which can be backed at around 1.95
This looks a good match up between 2 sides who will be looking to get into the title mix. Here my ratings suggest decent value backing over 2/2.5 goals and this looks to offer some decent risk v reward as only 3 of Juve’s last 16 home games have seen 1 or less goals scored. For my trade I am looking to the home side. Despite Milan’s recent improvement when visiting the elite sides they have only won 1 of the last 12 matches, whilst losing 8. Juve are themselves coming back into form and they have won their last 3 home games. Here they look decent value, and my recommended trade for this game is Juventus -0.5/1.0 at around 1.83.