21 Nov 2015 14:45 Watford v Man United
This Saturday afternoon promoted Watford host Manchester United at Vicarage Road. Kick-off is at 12:45 GMT.
Watford have made a very positive start to their return to the Premier League and despite losing 1-2 last time out at Leicester, the Hornets have won 4 of their last 8 Premier league matches. Watford’s recent home record reads a very mixed looking W2, D2, L2.
Watford can be backed at around 4.70 and if you do fancy them to do well then you have the option of keeping the draw on your side and they can be backed on the +0.5 Asian Handicap at around 2.01.
This is the 1st time that the 2 sides have met in the Premier League in the last 5 seasons.
The draw can be backed at around 3.50 and this looks correctly priced.
Manchester United have also made a positive start to the season, and they are coming off a very routine 2-0 victory over West Brom at old Trafford last time out. This victory took Louis van Gaal’s side up to 4th place and they are only 2 points behind neighbours Manchester City. United’s recent away record reads a decent looking W7, D3, L5.
When facing teams of Watford’s stature, United’s record reads a resilient-looking W4, D5, L1 and they can be backed at around 1.93.
As far as goals are concerned then we have some mixed stats. When looking at Watford’s opening 6 home games and United’s last 15 away. Then in the 21 matches, 9 games have seen 3 or more goals, 3 games have seen 2 goals and 9 games have seen 1 or less goals scored. When looking at Manchester United’s away record to teams of Watford’s stature, then only 3 of their last 16 have seen 1 or less goals scored. Here my ratings suggest value in backing over 2.0/2.5 goals at around 2.05.
This looks a good match to start the weekend’s action. Although my ratings suggest value in the goal line it should be noted that Manchester United have kept 8 clean sheets in their opening 12 matches. Also when looking at Watford’s home record, then they themselves have kept 4 clean sheets this season. So here it is difficult to make an argument in support for over 2.0/2.5 goals.
For my trade I am turning to the match line where Manchester United have a very strong away record to the promoted sides, which over the past 5 seasons reads W10, D4, L1. Historically Watford do not perform too well against the elite clubs and in their last 7 matches they have drawn 1 and lost 6. Any type of result for Watford would be regarded as a success, however my ratings suggest some small value with the visitors who will top the league with a victory. So my recommended trade is Manchester United -0.5 at around 1.93
21 Nov 2015 19:30 Man City v Liverpool
This Saturday evening sees one of the most anticipated matches of the season when City host Liverpool at the Etihad Stadium. Kick-off at 17:30 GMT.
Manchester City are coming into this match on the back of a 0-0 draw away at a very resilient Aston Villa side. Despite dropping 2 points, Manchester City are now unbeaten in 5 league matches and currently after 12 matches, they sit top of the table on 26 points. City’s recent home record reads a very impressive looking W12, D1, L2/
When hosting the Premier League’s 2nd tier sides, City again boast a strong looking record which reads W8, D2, L0, and here they can be backed at around 1.65. This price can be enhanced by backing Manuel Pellegrini’s side on the -0.5/1 handicap at around 1.86.
The recent head-to-head record at the Etihad is dominated by the home side and reads Manchester City 4 wins, 1 Draw, and Liverpool 0 Wins.
The draw can be backed at around 4.20 and despite the recent head-to-head matches this looks to offer some reasonable value.
After defeating Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, Jurgen Klopp was sent crashing down to reality when Liverpool lost 1-2 at home to Crystal Palace. This was Liverpool’s 1st defeat in 7 Premier League games, and this result has left then sitting in 10th place on 17 points. Liverpool’s recent away record reads a reasonable looking W5, D6, L4 and it should be noted that the reds have only lost 1 of their 6 away games this season.
When visiting the elite sides, Liverpool’s recent away record reads a mediocre looking W1, D2, L7 and they can be backed at around 5.70.
When looking at the goal line which is set at 2.5/3 then the stats are looking fairly mixed. When looking at both teams last 10 respective home and away matches against similar opposition then 9 of the 20 matches have seen 4 or more goals, 4 have seen 3 goals, and 7 have seen 2 or less goals scored. When looking at the general stats, then 12 of Liverpool’s last 16 away games have seen 2 or less goals scored. Here my ratings suggest the smallest value in Under 2.5/3.0 goals at around 1.93.
This looks a very interesting matchup. Here my ratings suggest some small value backing under 2.5/3 goals, however this goes completely against recent head-to-head matches, where all of the last 5 meetings at the Etihad have seen 3 or more goals scored. For my trade I am going to side with Manchester City who have an extremely strong home record. Here they are coming up against a Liverpool side that have only won 1 of their last 16 away to the elite sides (v Chelsea last away game) whilst losing 10. In the case of Manchester City’s 6 of their last 8 victories when hosting the 2nd tier sides have been won by 2 or more goals and their looks to be some decent risk v reward backing City on the handicap. So my recommended trade for this game is Manchester City -0.5/1.0 at around 1.86.
22 Nov 2015 18:00 Tottenham v West Ham
This Sunday afternoon sees a London derby when Tottenham host West Ham at White Hart Lane. Kick-off at 16:00 GMT.
Tottenham are coming into this match in some very good form. They were certainly the better side in the 1-1 daw against Arsenal at the Emirates where they were a little unlucky not to come away with all 3 points. Spurs are now undefeated in 11 premier league matches and currently they sit in 5th place on 21 points, which is just 5 behind leaders Manchester City. Spurs recent home form reads a decent looking W9, D4, L2
When playing teams of West Ham’s standing, Spurs record reads again, a far from impressive W3, D4, L3 and here they can be backed at around 1.55. If you do fancy Mauricio Pochettino’s side to do well here then their price can be enhanced and they can be backed on the Asian Handicap -1 goal at around 1.92.
The recent head-to-head record at White Hart Lane is extremely mixed and reads Spurs 1 Win, 2 Draws, and West Ham 1 Win.
The draw can be backed at around 4.35 and this has to be given some serious consideration.
West Ham are also having an exceptional season, and despite losing 2 of their opening 3 Premier league matches, they now sit in 6th place on the same points as Spurs. Here the Irons are coming off a 1-1 draw at home to Everton, and their recent away record reads a decent looking W4, D4, L7.
When facing teams of Spurs stature, West Ham’s record reads an average looking W2, D3, L5 and they can be backed at around 7.10. If you do fancy them to do well then you can keep the 1 goal loss on your side and they can be backed on the Asian handicap +1 goals at around 2.02
As far as goals are concerned then there is a leaning to unders. When playing similar opposition in both sides last 10 respective home and away matches. In the 20 games, 4 have seen 3 or more goals, 5 have seen 3 goals, whilst 11 have seen 2 or less. Here my ratings suggest the value is with under 2.5/3 goals and this can be backed at around 1.98
This is an extremely difficult game to call betting wise. Here my ratings are suggesting that although Spurs possess the better general form, they simply cannot be trusted at home on the -1 goal handicap. When facing teams of West Ham’s stature, none of their last 10 home games have seen them win by 2 or more goals, and here the draw certainly looks of interest.
For my trade I am turning to the goal line, where my ratings suggest value in under 2.5/3 goals. 6 of Spurs last 9 home matches have seen 2 or less goals and with only 3 of West Ham’s last 20 away games containing 4 or more goals, then their looks to be some decent risk v reward backing unders on the handicap. So my recommended trade for this match is under 2.5/3.0 goals at around 2.00.
23 Nov 2015 22:00 Crystal Palace v Sunderland
This Monday evening sees a Premier League fixture with Crystal Palace taking on Sunderland at Selhurst Park. Kick-off at 20:00 GMT.
Crystal Palace have made a positive start to the season and they are coming off an excellent 2-1 victory over Liverpool at Anfield. This was Palace’s first victory in 4 matches and currently they sit in 8th place on 19 points. Crystal Palace’s recent home form reads a very mixed W5, D2, L8
When looking at how Crystal Palace have performed against the bottom sides, their record again reads a very mixed W5, D2, L3 and they can be backed at around 1.57. If you do fancy Alan Pardew’s side to do well here then you have the option of enhancing this price on the -1 goal handicap which can be backed at around 1.98.
The recent head-to-head matches at Selhurst Park reads Crystal Palace 1 wins, 0 Draws, and Sunderland 1 Win.
The draw can be backed at around 4.20 and this looks to offer some very small value.
Since Sunderland appointed Sam Allardyce 4 matches ago they have lost 3 matches with their only victory coming in the Wear-Tyne derby against bitter rivals Newcastle. They have lost the other 3 matches with the latest defeat coming at home to Southampton where they narrowly lost 0-1. Currently Sunderland sit in 19th place on 6 points and they are now 4 points away from safety. Sunderland’s recent away record reflects their current position and reads W1, D5, L9.
When facing teams of Crystal Palace’s grade Sunderland’s away record reads a very reasonable looking W4 D4, L2 and they can be backed at around 7.00
As far as goals are concerned then with the goal line set at 2.5 there looks to be value in looking at the unders. When looking at both sides last 10 respective home and away matches to similar opposition we can see that 3 or more goals were seen in only 4 matches, and 2 or less were seen in 16 matches. My ratings are suggesting some small value backing under 2.5 goals at around 1.96.
This is a very difficult game to asses. Here my ratings suggest value in backing Crystal Palace. However my ratings cover both home and away matches and Crystal Palace’s home form is completely unreliable, and the stats are pointing to the away side on the handicap.
For my trade I am turning to the goal line where there looks to be some small value backing unders. Although both sides general form is mixed regarding the goal line, 9 of Crystal Palace’s home games against the bottom sides have seen 2 or less goals. With 5 of Palace’s last 7 home games ending 0-0 at Half time (Indeed Palace have now been level at Half time in all 11 of their last 11 Premier League games). There looks some decent value in backing unders at the current price. So my recommended trade for this match is under 2.5 goals at around 1.96.