BAYER LEVERKUSEN - NK CELJE
The market expects a one-sided afternoon. Bayer Leverkusen is the shortest price on a book of 1.11 / 9.00 / 19.00 (1 / X / 2), an implied 84.6%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 84.6% / 10.4% / 4.9% on an overround of 6.5%.
Under 2.5 goals has drifted from 3.80 to 4.05 (6.2%). Layers are happy to take that side on, which is worth respecting.
Liquidity is strong — €37,364 already matched on the 1X2 market, putting this among the most heavily traded fixtures on the card. Prices in a market that deep are far more reliable than in a thin one.
In the league table Bayer Leverkusen sit 8th on 0 points (0W 0D 0L) with Nk Celje 3rd on 0 points (0W 0D 0L).
Bayer Leverkusen read D-W-L-D-L-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (2W 2D 2L) — patchy.
Nk Celje read L-D-W-L-D-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (1W 3D 2L) — patchy.
Our last-six model flags 2 qualifying strikes here. Reading Bayer Leverkusen first, then Nk Celje, out of their last six: O 3.50 5 and 2, HT O 1.50 4 and 4.
Bayer Leverkusen team news: Carles Martínez is without Jonas Hofmann, Victor Boniface, Tim Oermann and Kennet Eichhorn due to eligibility rules, while Nathan Tella, Guéla Doué, Montrell Culbreath and Eliesse Ben Seghir are also unavailable.
Bayer Leverkusen team news: Mark Flekken is set to start in goal, with Jarell Quansah, Edmond Tapsoba, Facundo Medina and Miguel Gutiérrez in front of him. Leverkusen aims to dominate possession, allowing Gutiérrez and Quansah to advance and help overload Celje’s defensive setup.
Nk Celje team news: Vítor Campelos will be missing Jost Pišek, while Andrej Kotnik and Artemijus Tutyškinas are serving suspensions. Aside from these absences, the visitors have sufficient continuity to maintain a familiar setup.
Nk Celje team news: Žan-Luk Leban is likely to continue in goal, with Pijus Širvys, Damjan Vuklišević, Darko Hrka and Leonardo Koutris in front of him. Their defensive organisation will face a stern test from a Leverkusen side adept at creating numerical advantages both centrally and on the flanks.
Bayer Leverkusen are without 8 — Guéla Doué (Out - injured), Montrell Culbreath (Out - injured), Eliesse Ben Seghir (Out - injured), Nathan Tella (Out - injured), Jonas Hofmann (Out - ineligible), Tim Oermann (Out - ineligible).
Nk Celje are without 2 — Artemijus Tutyskinas (Out - suspended), Andrej Kotnik (Out - suspended).
Early lineups are in: Bayer Leverkusen set up 4-2-3-1 against 4-2-3-1. See the pitch graphic above for the full XI.
Bayer Leverkusen lean hardest on Mark Flekken (6.9), Patrik Schick (6.9), Aleix García (6.9) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
The projected score for this one is Bayer Leverkusen 3 - 1 Nk Celje, a home win by 2 with 4 goals in it — on the right side of the 2.5 line.
The read: Bayer Leverkusen at 1.11 is short enough that the value, if there is any, sits on the handicap or in the goals market rather than the outright.
This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 06:50 on 16th September 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.