Match stats
Ukraine took a major step forward to qualifying for the finals when beating Slovenia 2-0 in L’viv. Goals from Andriy Yarmolenko and Yevhen Seleznyov ensured a very comfortable evening for the Ukranians.
Slovenia did show some attacking intent in the final stages of the game, but they never really looked like scoring. Indeed they did not register 1 shot on target all evening, and it will take something special if they are to get back into this tie.
Slovenia’s recent home record reads W6, D1, L3. When looking at their last 10 competitive home matches their record reads W5, D2, L3. Here they have only lost 1 of their last 7 home matches and that was a 2-3 defeat to in form England.
This will be the 3rd time the 2 nations have met on Slovenian soil with the record reading Slovenia 2 wins, 0 draws and Ukraine 0 wins.
Ukraine’s recent away record reads a strong looking W7, D1, L2 whilst their recent competitive away form reads W6, D2, L2. It should be noted that the 2 defeats came against Spain and France.
Goal Stats
As far as goals are concerned then the stats point to overs. When looking at both sides last 10 competitive home and away internationals, then in the 20 matches 10 have seen 3 or more goals, 2 goals have been seen in 4 matches and 1 or less goals have been seen in 6 matches.
Summary
This looks almost an impossible task for Slovenia, who were never in the game in L’viv. Here my ratings are suggesting some very small value with the away side. Ukraine are an extremely resilient side away from home, and historically they only get beaten by the more established nations. Indeed since the Euro 2012 finals Ukraine have only been beaten by European giants Spain and France in 14 away matches.
For my trade I am going to turn to the goal line, where the stats on the away side are very strong. Ukraine have kept a clean sheet in 6 of their last 8 competitive away matches, again only conceding to Spain & France. Here they are coming up against a Slovenia side that are resilient at home and they have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 7 qualifying matches.
Here although the general stats are suggesting goals, my ratings are suggesting value in the unders. Now obviously Slovenia are going to have to show some intent right from the start, however if they leave themselves open and concede then the task will become an impossible one. Here Ukraine should have enough in defence to see the job through, and so my recommended trade for this game is under 2.0 goals at around 2.00.