Denmark v Sweden
This Tuesday evening Denmark host Nordic rivals Sweden in a Euro 2016 play-off match taking place at Parken, Copenhagen. Kick-off at 19:45 GMT.
Sweden looked as though they were coasting through to the finals after taking a 2-0 lead through Emil Forsberg and Zlatan Ibrahimovic at the Friends Arena on Saturday evening. However, the Danes pulled a vital goal back through Nicolai Jorgensen in the 80th minute, and indeed Denmark certainly finished the tie looking the better side. This late goal has now left this tie on a real knife edge.
Here a 1-0 win would take the Danes through on the away goal. Should Denmark fail to qualify here then long-time coach Martin Olsen would step down after being in charge of the national team since 2000.
Denmark’s recent home record reads a reasonable looking W6, D1, L3. When looking at their last 10 competitive home matches their record reads W4, D4, L2. However it should be noted that the Danes have now not won in 5 matches, having lost their last 3.
This will be the 52nd time the 2 nations have met on Danish soil with the record reading Denmark 23 wins, 8 draws and Sweden 20 wins. It should be noted that Denmark have won the last 3 matches.
Sweden’s recent away record reads W3, D3, L4 whilst their recent competitive away form reads W4, D3, L3.
Goal Stats
As far as goals are concerned then the stats are fairly mixed. When looking at both sides last 10 competitive home and away Internationals, then in the 20 matches 8 have seen 3 or more goals, 2 goals have been seen in 6 matches and 1 or less goals have been seen in 6 matches.
Summary
This looks as though it will be an incredibly tense evening between 2 sides that are showing some very mixed form. Indeed both nations have certainly seen better days. Here my ratings are suggesting that there is some small value in backing Denmark on the handicap, and they have certainly had the better of recent meetings on Danish soil. However their recent form looks very poor and I would avoid the match line, as it would be no surprise to see Sweden coming away with some type of result that will see them qualify for the finals. Indeed for the more adventurous the best value is with the draw which is currently priced at around 3.51.
For my trade I am going to turn to the goal line where their again looks some very small value in backing under 2.0/2.5 goals. When looking at Sweden’s recent away form then all 7 of their last 7 away internationals have seen 2 or less goals scored. With Denmark not having to chase the game from the off we could see a very cagey affair with both defences dominant. So my recommended trade for this game is under 2.0/2.5 goals at around 1.90.