FA Cup Semi-Final tie when Aston Villa meet Liverpool at Wembley


Aston Villa are coming into this Semi-Final on the back of a very good 1-0 victory away at Spurs which moved Villa up to 15th place on 32 points which is 6 points above the drop zone. Manager Tim Sherwood will have taken great pleasure from this victory and it will certainly send Villa into this match with some much needed confidence. Aston Villa’s recent Premier League away record reads a poor looking W3, D2, L10.

When playing the top 2 tiers of the Premier League away from home then Aston Villa’s form is poor and reads W2, D0, L8. Villa reached this stage of the competition on the back of 4 home ties, beating Championship sides Blackpool & Bournemouth along with victories over Leicester & West Brom. Aston Villa can be backed at around 6.45.

Looking at the recent head-to-head matches in all competitions the record reads Liverpool 5 wins, 2 draws and Aston Villa 3 wins. If you do fancy Villa to do well then you have the option to keep the 1 goal loss on your side and Villa can be backed on the Asian handicap +1 goal at around 1.93.

The draw can be backed at around 4.25 and this offers no real value. Liverpool are having a good season and after comfortably beating Newcastle 2-0 last Monday Brendan Rodgers side now sit in 5th place on 57 points which is just 4 points off an automatic Champions League spot. Liverpool’s Premier League away record reads a reasonable looking W8, D1, L6.

When facing teams of Villa’s grading Liverpool’s away record reads an average looking W5, D2, L3. Liverpool got to this stage of the tournament via 4 away wins against Wimbledon & Crystal Palace. They also needed replays against Bolton & Blackburn. 

Here Liverpool can be backed at around 1.59.

When looking at the total goals market then their looks to be some very mixed stats. When looking at both sides last 10 away matches to similar opposition. In the 20 matches 13 have seen 3 or more goals and 7 have seen 2 or less. When looking at Aston Villa’s last 15 Premier League away games then only 5 of 15 have seen 3 or more goals scored. Looking at Liverpool 6 of their last 7 away games have seen under 2.5 goals scored. My ratings suggest Over 2.5 goals offers some value and this can be backed at around 1.87.

My ratings suggest that there is some small value in both the match and goal lines. As far as goals are concerned then although my ratings suggest value in overs it should be remembered that Liverpool have kept 6 clean sheets in their last 7 Premier League away games. Also Villa have not scored in 6 of their last 9 away matches. For my trade I am going to turn to the match line where my ratings suggest Liverpool offer some reasonable value. Despite beating Spurs last weekend Villa’s form when facing the top sides is very poor. The last time Villa reached this stage of the tournament they lost 0-3 to Chelsea and here Liverpool look value to inflict another Semi-Final defeat on the West Midlands side.

So my recommended trade for this game is Liverpool -1 goal at around 2.00.

Category: Predictions

Written by: Matchbook

Date: 06:06 18 Apr, 2015