This Friday evening Bosnia host the Republic of Ireland in a Euro 2016 play off match at the Bilino Polji Stadium, Zenica, Kick-off at 19:45 GMT.
Bosnia qualified for the play offs by finishing 3rd in Group B, where they finished on 17 points which was 4 points above 4th place Israel. A couple of matches ago it did not look good for Bosnia, however they then went on to beat Wales 2-0 at home and then took a very creditable 3 points in Cyprus. Their nearest rivals Israel lost at home to Cyprus and then away at Belgium.
Bosnia’s recent home record reads a strong looking W7, D1, L2.
When we look at Bosnia recent competitive record it mirrors that of their general record and reads W7, D1, L2.
This will be the first time that the 2 nations have met on Bosnian soil. However they have met in a friendly in Dublin in 2012, with Ireland winning 1-0.
The Republic of Ireland came up just short of automatic qualification when losing 1-2 in Poland in their final group match. This was Ireland 1st defeat in 8 internationals and they are approaching this game in some decent form.
The Republic of Ireland’s recent away record reads a fairly average looking W2, D4, L4
When looking at their qualification record it reads a slightly more respectable W4, D2, L4.
Goal lines
As far as goals are concerned then the stats suggest a leaning to overs. When we look at both sides last 10 home and away competitive matches we can see that in the 20 matches, 3 or more goals were seen in 13 matches, 2 goals were seen in 3 and 1 or less goals were scored in only 4.
Summary
This is quite a tough game to asses. On the face of it Bosnia have an extremely strong home record, and they also qualified with ease for the 2014 World Cup finals in Brazil. However here I have Ireland rated as a better proposition. If we look at Bosnia’s recent record they have not really beaten anyone of any real substance. If we then look at Ireland’s recent record, already during this campaign they have taken 4 points from 6 against World Champions Germany.
When looking at the goal line, then matches involving Bosnia tend to produce goals. If we look at this qualifying campaign then 7 of the 10 matches have seen 3 or more goals whilst only 1 produced 1 or less goal. However when looking at the stats for Ireland, if we take away the matches against Gibraltar only 2 of the 8 matches saw 3 or more goals scored. Despite this my ratings suggest value in backing over 2 goals.
For my trade I am turning to the match line where although Bosnia are rightful favourites they are priced too low here, and my ratings are suggest Ireland should just be receiving a quarter goal at best. So my recommended trade is Republic of Ireland +0.5 goals at around 1.90.