Norway face Hungary this Thursday evening at the Ullevaal Stadium, Oslo. Kick-off at 19:45 GMT.
Despite winning 3 of their last 4 qualifying matches, Norway lost 1-2 to table toppers Italy in Rome in the final game of the Play offs. This result left Norway in 3rd place on 19 points which was just 1 point short of 2nd place Croatia who beat Malta 1-0 in their final game of the campaign.
Norway’s recent home record reads W3, D5, L2. When looking at their last 10 competitive home matches their record reads W5, D2, L3. It should be noted that Norway are now undefeated in their last 4 home qualifiers.
This will be the 9th time the 2 nations have met on Norwegian soil with the record reading Norway 3 wins, 1 draw and Hungary 4 wins. However it should be noted that the last time Hungary beat Norway was way back in 1981.
Hungary finished their qualifying campaign with a disappointing 3-4 defeat away at Greece. Hungary finished in 3rd place on 16 points which was 4 points behind 2nd place Romania.
Hungary’s recent competitive away form reads W4, D3, L3.
Goal Stats
As far as goals are concerned then we should expect a low scoring encounter. When looking at both sides last 10 competitive home and away Internationals, then in the 20 matches 6 have seen 3 or more goals, 2 goals have been seen in 9 matches and 1 or less goals have been seen in 5 matches.
Summary
This should be a hard fought tie between 2 nations that have not figured in major competitions for some time. Norway last appeared in the Euro’s in 2000 and Hungary have not appeared in a major competition since the World Cup finals back in 1986.
Here my ratings are suggesting value in both the match and goal lines. When looking at the goal line there looks to be some good value backing over 2 goals. However it has to be noted that Norway have kept a clean sheet in their last 3 home matches and only 2 of their last 10 home games have seen 3 or more goals scored.
For my trade I am going to turn to the match line, where there is no question that Norway have shown the better form of the 2 nations in recent years. Also Norway were very unlucky not to qualify from a group where the top 2 qualifying sides (Italy & Croatia) are rated in my top 20 and both appeared in last year’s World Cup finals.
Hungary on the other hand never really looked like qualifying behind Northern Ireland and Romania. Here my ratings are suggesting that Norway should be giving up at least three quarters of a goal and so my recommended trade for this game is Norway -0.5 goals at around 1.91.