BORUSSIA DORTMUND - PADERBORN
A heavy favourite, with the price to match. Borussia Dortmund is the shortest price on a book of 1.22 / 7.00 / 10.00 (1 / X / 2), an implied 77.1%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 77.1% / 13.4% / 9.4% on an overround of 6.3%.
Liquidity is strong — €80,568 already matched on the 1X2 market, putting this among the most heavily traded fixtures on the card. Prices in a market that deep are far more reliable than in a thin one.
In the league table Borussia Dortmund sit 3rd on 6 points (2W 0D 0L) with Paderborn 13th on 1 point (0W 1D 1L).
Borussia Dortmund read W-W-W-L-L-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (4W 0D 2L) — a strong recent run.
Paderborn read L-D-D-D-W-D across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (1W 4D 1L) — patchy.
Borussia Dortmund are without 5 — Karetsas (Out), Mane (Out), Konstantelias (Out), Inacio (Suspended), Can (Out). Losing Karetsas and Mane is the kind of absence that moves a price.
Paderborn are without 5 — Awortwie-Grant (Out), Eickel (Out), Gayret (Out), Michel (Out), Klaas (Out).
Borussia Dortmund lean hardest on Gregor Kobel (9.5), Serhou Guirassy (9.0), Waldemar Anton (9.0) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Konstantinos Karetsas is out for Borussia Dortmund — index 7.7, against 9.0 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Filippo Mane is out for Borussia Dortmund — index 5.7, against 9.0 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Giannis Konstantelias is out for Borussia Dortmund — index 5.4, against 9.0 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
The read: Borussia Dortmund at 1.22 is short enough that the value, if there is any, sits on the handicap or in the goals market rather than the outright.
This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 06:50 on 12th September 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.