08 Nov 2015 16:00 Roma v Lazio
This Sunday afternoon sees one of the big Serie A matches of the season when Roma host City rivals Lazio at the Olimpico Stadium. Kick-Off 14:00 GMT.
Roma have started the season in very good form. However they are coming off a 0-1 defeat to title rivals Inter last weekend. Previous to this defeat Rudi Garcia’s side had won 5 Serie A matches on the bounce, and currently Roma sit in 3rd place on 23 points. Roma’s recent home record reads a very resilient looking W7, D6, L2.
When hosting the second tier of Serie A, Roma again boast a strong record that reads W7, D2, L1 and they can be backed at around 1.95.
The recent head-to-head record at the Olimpic0 Stadium reads Roma 2 wins, 1 Draws and Lazio 1 win.
The draw can be backed at around 3.70 and this looks to offer some decent value.
Lazio are coming into this match on the back of a very disappointing 1-3 defeat at home to Milan. This was Lazio’s 3rd defeat in 4 Serie A matches and currently Stefano Pioli’s side sit in 7th place on 18 points. Lazio boast a decent away record which reads W7, D2, L6. However it should be noted that they have lost 4 of their 5 away games this season.
When facing the top sides of Serie A Lazio’s record reads W1, D3, L6 and they can be backed at around 4.25 and this looks to offer some value. If you do fancy Lazio to get a result here then they can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.5 goals at around 2.00.
When looking at the goal line then the stats suggest we may see an entertaining affair. When looking at both sides' last 10 home and away games against similar opposition, we can see that in the 20 matches 8 have seen 4 or more goals, 3 have seen 3 goals scored and 9 have seen 2 or less. When looking at the general stats only 5 of Lazio’s last 16 away games have seen 2 or less goals scored. My ratings suggest some small value in Over 2.5/3.0 goals which can be backed at around 2.00.
This should again be some occasion and is already a vital game for both sides, who have title and European qualification aspirations. Here my ratings suggest value in both the match and goal lines. Here I am going to concentrate on the match line where my ratings suggest value in backing Lazio. These ratings do not take into account that both teams share the same stadium, and it should also be noted that Lazio have lost just 2 of the last 8 league meetings played at the Olimpico Stadium. Roma are rightfully favourites however they certainly should not be odds on and my recommended trade is Lazio +0.5 goals at around 2.00.
08 Nov 2015 21:45 Sampdoria v Fiorentina
This Sunday evening in the Serie A, Sampdoria take on table toppers Fiorentina at the Luigi Ferraris Stadium. Kick-Off 19:45 GMT.
Sampdoria under new manager Walter Zenga have started the season in fairly average form. Here they are coming off a 1-1 draw away at Chievo, and Sampdoria have now won just 1 of their last 6 Serie A matches. When playing at home Sampdoria are extremely difficult to break down and their recent home form reads an extremely resilient looking W6, D7, L2.
When hosting the second tier side of Serie A, Sampdoria again show a very strong draw bias and their record reads W3, D6, L1 and they can be backed at around 4.00. If you do fancy Sampdoria to do well here, then you are certainly best keeping the draw on your side and they can be backed +0.5 goals at around 1.90.
The recent head-to-head record at Luigi Ferraris favours the home side and reads Sampdoria 2 wins, 1 Draw and Fiorentina 1 win.
The draw can be backed at around 3.50 and this looks to offer some very good value when considering the recent form of the home side.
Under new manager Paulo Sousa, Fiorentina are having an excellent season and here they are coming off a very comfortable 4-1 home victory over promoted Frosinone. Fiorentina have now won 7 of their last 9 matches, with their only defeats coming against Roma & Napoli. Fiorentina’s recent away record reads a positive looking W8, D2, L5.
When visiting the mid table sides of Serie A, Fiorentina’s record reads a strong looking W6, D3, L1 and they can be backed at around 2.05
As far as goals are concerned then there are some extremely mixed stats. When looking at both sides' last 10 home and away games against similar opposition then we can see in the 20 matches 3 or more goals were seen in 10 matches, and 2 or less goals were also seen in 10 games. When looking at both sides' general form, only 4 of Sampdoria’s last 15 home games have seen 3 or more goals. However in the case of Fiorentina 11 of their last 15 away have finished over. My ratings suggest value in Over 2.5 goals at around 1.90.
This should be a good match up. Looking at the goal line it is almost impossible to call and the stats are far too mixed to make a firm judgement. For my trade I am going to look to Sampdoria who have now been consistent at home for some time, where they have now lost just 4 of their last 31 matches. Also when hosting Fiorentina they have only lost 2 of their last 15 Serie A games. A victory here would see Fiorentina as real title contenders, however the ratings and stats suggest that this may just be beyond them. So my recommended trade for this match is Sampdoria +0.5 goals at around 1.90.