07 Nov 2015 14:45 Bournemouth v Newcastle
Saturday afternoon sees a Premier League match between 2 struggling sides, when Bournemouth host Newcastle at the Vitality Stadium. Kick-Off 12:45.
Bournemouth have made a fairly poor start to their debut Premier League campaign, and Eddie Howe’s side have now lost 4 of their last 5 matches whilst conceding 15 goals. Their latest defeat came last weekend when losing 0-2 to Southampton at St Mary’s and this defeat left the Cherries in 17th place on 8 points. Bournemouth’s recent home record reads W1, D2, L2.
Apart from the 1-5 loss to Spurs Bournemouth’s remaining 4 matches have been against teams similar to Newcastle and their record reads W1, D2, L1. Here Bournemouth can be backed at around 2.25 and this looks to offer some value. If you do fancy them to do well then you can keep an element of the draw on your side and they can be backed -0.0/0.5 goals at around 1.95.
This is the first time that the 2 sides have met in the Premier League.
The draw can be backed at around 3.60 and given previous promoted sides general home record in the early part of the season, has to be given some consideration.
Newcastle are also coming into this game in some poor form. They are coming off a 0-0 home draw against Stoke and have now only won 1 of their opening 11 matches. More worrying for Steve McClaren’s side is that they have conceded 2 or more goals in 8 of these matches. Newcastle’s recent away record reads a very poor W1, D2, L12.
When facing teams of Bournemouth’s grade Newcastle’s away record again is far from spectacular and reads W3, D2, L5 and Newcastle can be backed at around 3.45.
As far as goals are concerned then we have some mixed stats. When looking at Bournemouth’s home record then 4 of their 5 matches have seen 2 or less goals. In the case of Newcastle then this season, 3 of their 5 away games have seen 2 or less goals with only 1 of the 5 matches ending with 4 or more goals. These stats go slightly against my ratings that suggest value in Over 2.5/3.0 goals which can be backed at around 2.12.
Even at this early stage of the season this is a vital game for both sides. When looking at the goal line there seems to be too many mixed messages to make a definite decision. For my trade I am turning to the match line where Newcastle have been simply dreadful away from home. Newcastle have only scored once away from home this season whilst conceding 13. Going further back they have won only once in their last 18 away games, and that was at relegated Hull. My ratings are suggesting value with the home side who should at least be good enough to avoid defeat and there looks some decent risk v reward on the handicap. So my recommended trade is Bournemouth -0.0/0.5 goals at around 1.95.
07 Nov 2015 19:30 Stoke City v Chelsea
Saturday evening sees a vital Premier League clash when Stoke City entertain under pressure Chelsea at the Britannia Stadium, Kick Off 17:30 GMT.
After finishing 9th in the last 2 campaigns, Mark Hughes was hoping his side would this season take a step towards the European places. However at the start of the season Stoke City only took 3 points from their opening 6 matches. Things have improved since then, and after coming off a 0-0 draw away at Newcastle they now sit in 14th place on 13 points. Stoke City’s recent home form reads a reasonable looking W7, D3, L5.
When hosting the elite Premier League sides Stoke’s recent home record reads W3, D2, L5 and they can be backed at around 3.85. If you do fancy Mark Hughes men to avoid defeat, then you can keep the draw on your side, and the Potters can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.5 goals at around 1.85.
The recent head-to-head record at the Britannia Stadium reads Stoke 1 win, 2 Draws and Chelsea 2 wins.
The draw can be backed at around 3.55 and this looks to offer some value.
Chelsea are coming into this game in some poor form. After losing 1-3 at home to Liverpool last weekend Chelsea now find themselves in 15thplace on 11 points. Manager Jose Mourinho’s has also come under intense pressure and there is increasing media speculation as to whether he will hang onto his job or not. Chelsea’s recent away record reads a reasonable looking W7, D3, L5.
When facing teams of Stoke’s grade, Chelsea’s away record is very strong and reads W7, D1, L2. and here the champions can be backed at around 2.10.
As far as goals are concerned then the stats point to overs. When looking at both sides' last 10 home and away matches to similar opposition then we see that in the 20 matches, 12 have seen 3 or more goals, 4 have seen 2 goals and only 4 have seen 1 or less goals. When looking at both sides general respective home and away form only 3 of Stokes last 15, and 3 of Chelsea’s last 17 away have seen 1 or less goals scored. Here my ratings suggest value in backing Over 2.0/2.5 goals at around 1.90.
Once again this is a fascinating matchup between two sides who would have both expected to start the season in better form. Here my ratings suggest value in both the match and goal lines. When looking at the match line, then the value is with the home side, and here they are facing a Chelsea side that have won just 1 of their last 6 away games. My only concern here is that Stoke have lost 3 of their opening 6 home games.
For my trade I am turning to the goal line, where the value is with the overs. All 7 of Chelsea’s last 7 away games have seen 3 or more goals. When Stoke have faced the elite sides then since 2010 only 4 of 20 matches have seen 1 or less goals. So there looks some decent risk v reward backing overs on the handicap. So my recommended trade for this game is Over 2.0/2.5 goals at around 1.90.
08 Nov 2015 15:30 Aston Villa v Man City
This Sunday afternoon sees a bottom v top clash when Aston Villa host Manchester City at Villa Park. Kick-Off 13:30 GMT.
Aston Villa are having a terrible season. Here they are coming off a 1-3 defeat away at Spurs and this was Villa’s 7th Premier League defeat on the bounce. Currently Aston Villa sit bottom of the table on 4 points, which is already 4 points from safety and new manager Remi Garde certainly has his work cut out if he is to halt their current slide. Aston Villa’s recent home record reads a mediocre looking W3, D3, L9.
When hosting the Premier League elite sides Aston Villa’s record reads a poor looking W2, D1, L7 and they can be backed at around 7.50. If you do fancy Villa to do well here then your best option is certainly to keep the 1 goal defeat on your side and they can be backed on the Asian Handicap + 1.0/1.5 goals at around 1.90.
The recent head-to-head record at Villa Park shows some mixed results and reads Aston Villa 2 wins, 0 Draws and Manchester City 3 wins.
The draw can be backed at around 4.80 and this looks correctly price.
Manchester City are coming into this match, sitting top of the table on 25 points after gaining a fortunate 2-1 victory at home to Norwich City. City boast a fairly strong away record that reads W7, D3, L5 and it should be noted that 5 of these victories have come in the last 7 matches.
When facing teams of Aston Villa’s grade Manchester City boast a strong looking W7, D2, L1 and they can be backed at around 1.47.
As far as goals are concerned then there looks to be a leaning to unders. When looking at both sides' last 10 home and away matches against similar opposition 4 or more goals have been seen in only 4 matches. 3 goals have been seen in 5, whilst 11 games have seen 2 or less goals scored. My ratings suggest value in the Under 2.5/3.0 goals which can be backed at around 2.00.
Betting wise this looks an interesting matchup. Although Villa have a very poor home record, it should be noted that they have only lost 1 of their last 16 home games by 2 or more goals. Also when hosting the elite sides they have only lost 2 of 10 matches by at least 2 goals. Despite this my ratings suggest that the risk v reward backing Villa +1.0/1.5 goals does not look worth taking on.
For my trade I am turning to the goal line where the value is with the unders. only 1 of Villas last 10 hosting the elite sides have seen 4 or more goals and the risk v reward backing unders on the handicap looks worth taking on. So my recommended trade for this game is Under 2.5/3.0 goals at around 2.00.
08 Nov 2015 18:00 Arsenal v Tottenham
Sunday afternoon sees the much anticipated North London derby when Arsenal host rivals Spurs at the Emirates Stadium. Kick-Off 16:00 GMT.
Arsenal have made can excellent start to the season and they have now won their last 5 Premier League matches on the bounce. Their latest victory was an impressive 3-0 away win at Swansea. Currently Arsenal sit in 2nd place on 25 points and they are trailing leaders Manchester City on goal difference. Arsenal’s recent home record reads a very positive looking W10, D3, L2.
When hosting teams of Spurs' grading then the Gunners record reads a fairly average W2, D5, L3 and Arsenal can be backed at around 1.70 and this looks priced about right.
The recent head-to-head record at the Emirates reads Arsenal 3 Wins, 1 Draw and Spurs 1 win.
The draw can be backed at around 4.25 and this looks to offer some reasonable value given Arsenal’s recent home record to the second tier sides.
Spurs have also started the season in positive fashion, and after losing their opening day match at Old Trafford, Mauricio Pochettino’s side have now gone 10 matches without defeat. Here they are coming off a comfortable 3-1 victory at home to Aston Villa and currently Spurs sit in 5th place on 20 points. Spurs recent away record reads W6, D4, L5.
When visiting the elite sides, Spurs' away record reads a very poor W0, D2, L8. Indeed this inability to consistently take 3 points from the top 2 tiers of the Premier League has been something of an Achilles heel for Spurs over the past few seasons. Here Spurs can be backed at around 5.00. If you do fancy them to do well then you are certainly best keeping an element of the 1 goal loss on your side and they can be backed +0.5/1.0 goal at around 2.05.
As far as goals are concerned then the stats point to unders. When looking at both sides' last 10 home and away matches to similar opposition we can see that 4 or more goals were seen in 8 matches, with 3 goals being seen in 2, and 2 or less goals seen in 10 matches. Only 3 of Arsenals last 16 home games have seen 4 or more goals. My ratings suggest value in Under 3.0 goals which can be backed at around 1.90.
This should be another excellent North London derby. Here Arsenal are rightly favourites, however I see no real value backing them on the -0.5/1.0 goal handicap, especially given Spurs' recent resilient form. For my trade I am turning to the goal line. When hosting the 2nd tier sides 7 of Arsenals last 10 home games have seen 2 or less goals. Also only 5 of Arsenals last 20 home games have seen 4 or more goals. This should be a hard fought game where the draw has to be given some consideration and my recommended trade for this match is Under 3.0 goals at around 1.90.