Real Madrid have once again made a very solid start to the season. Here they are coming off a very routine 3-1 victory over promoted Las Palmas. Currently after 10 matches Real Madrid top the table on 24 points and their recent home record reads as expected, a solid looking W12, D3, L0.
When hosting the Top 6 La Liga sides, Reals home record is certainly not as impressive as their general stats and this reads W5, D2, L3.
When looking at Real’s European record, their recent home record reads an impressive W8, D1, L1. Indeed their last loss against Schalke is their only home defeat in 25 home matches, in which they have won 21.
This is the first time these sides have met in Madrid in the Champions League since 2000.
PSG have also started the season in very strong form. Last time out they beat Rennes 1-0, and currently after 12 matches PSG top the table on 32 points and they are already 10 points clear of 2nd place Lyon.
PSG’s domestic away record reads W10, D3, L2, and when facing the Top 6 Ligue 1 sides their record reads a very resilient W4, D5, L1.
PSG’s Champions League away record reads a fairly average looking W4, D2, L4.
Goal lines
As far as goals are concerned then there looks to be some value backing overs. When looking at both sides last 10 European home and away matches. We can see in the 20 matches that 9 have seen 4 or more goals, 3 have seen 3, and 8 matches have seen 2 or less goals. However when looking at PSG’s recent domestic away form to the Top 6 sides then 7 of their last 10 away matches have seen 2 or less goals. In the case of Real, 6 of their last 10 hosting Top 6 sides have seen 4 or more goals.
Prediction
This is a vital match, as with both sides sitting on 7 points the winner of the group will enter the knockout stages with a definite advantage. Here my ratings suggest value in both the goal and match lines. When considering the goal line then my ratings suggest value in over 2.5/3 goals. However this season in 5 competitive home matches Real are yet to concede a goal.
For my trade I am turning to the match line where my ratings suggest that there is some small value backing Real Madrid. As we have already seen Real boast an outstanding home record in this competition. Here they are facing a PSG side who historically look to come short when facing Europe’s elite away from Paris. In their last 9 European away ties PSG have faced Barcelona and Chelsea twice and Benfica once and in these 5 games they conceded 11 goals whilst losing 4 of these 5 matches, and 3 by 2 goals. Here I expect Real Madrid to take control of group A, and my recommended trade is Real Madrid -0.5/1 goal at around 1.97