31 Oct 2015 21:45 Inter v Roma
This Saturday evening sees a high profile Serie A match, when Inter Milan host Roma at the San Siro. Kick-off at 19:45 GMT.
Inter Milan have started the season in very positive fashion. Roberto Mancini’s side won their opening 5 matches before losing 1-4 at home to Fiorentina. Since that defeat Inter have remained unbeaten in 4 matches and are coming off a 1-0 victory in Bologna. This win left then in 4th place on 21 points. Inter’s recent home record reads a reasonable looking W6, D5, L4.
When hosting the elite sides, Inter again boast a reasonable record that reads W4, D4, L2 and they can be backed at around 2.75. If you do fancy Mancini’s side to do well here, then you can keep the draw on your side and they can be backed off scratch, -0.0 at around 2.00.
The recent head-to-head record at the San Siro is very mixed and reads Inter 2 Wins, 1 Draw, and Roma 2 Wins.
The draw can be backed at around 3.45 and this has to be given some very serious consideration.
Roma are coming into this match in some very strong form. Rudi Garcia’s side have now won 5 league matches on the bounce and they are coming off a very routine 3-1 victory over Udinese. This win left Roma top of the League on 23 points, in what is shaping up to be one of the most open Serie a title races in years. Roma’s recent away record reads W7, D5, L3.
When facing teams of Inter’s grading, Roma boast a decent record which reads W5 D3, L2. If you do fancy them to do well here then I would certainly look to keep the draw on your side and they can also be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.0 at around 1.91.
When considering the goal line then there is a leaning to unders. When looking at both sides last 10 respective home and away games to similar opposition we can see in the 20 matches 7 have seen 3 or more goals, and 13 have seen 1 or less. Here my ratings suggest value in under 2.5 goals which can be backed at around 2.05.
This looks an excellent matchup between 2 in form sides. When looking at the match line then the draw looks very strong and if I had to lean to any side then it would have to be Roma who have looked extremely resilient on their travels. For my trade I am going to turn to the goal line. Although 7 of Roma’s last 9 away games have seen 3 or more goals, and 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings have also finished with over 2.5 goals. My ratings suggest that the value lies in the unders. Inter have looked a strong side defensively at home this season and have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches whilst only scoring 4 goals. Here my ratings suggest the line should be nearer 2.0/2.5 and so my recommended trade for this game is under 2.5 goals at around 2.05.
01 Nov 2015 21:45 Lazio v AC Milan
This Sunday evening sees the second Rome/Milan fixture of the weekend when Lazio host Milan at the Olympic Stadium. Kick-off at 19:45 GMT
Lazio are coming into this game in some Jekyll and Hyde form. At home in the Olympic Stadium they have taken 15 points from a possible 15. Whilst away from home they have only taken 3 points, and they are coming off a very disappointing 2-1 defeat to Atalanta. Lazio currently sit in 6th place just 5 points away from city rivals Roma. Lazio’s recent home records reads a very strong-looking W11, D1, L4.
When hosting the second tier Serie A sides Stefano Pioli’s side boast a mixed record which reads W5, D1, L4 and they can be backed at around 2.12 to win this game, and this offer some value.
The recent head-to-head record at the Olympic Stadium reads Lazio 3 Wins, 2 Draws, and Milan 0 Wins.
The draw can be backed at around 3.40 and although this should be given some consideration when looking at Lazio’s recent home form, it offers little appeal at its current price.
Milan are very much like Lazio, in that their home form is good, having won 4 of their opening 5 matches. However their away form is mediocre, having taken just 4 points from a possible 15. Here they are coming off a 1-0 victory at home to Chievo and currently Sinisa Mihajlovic’s side sit in 8th place on 16 points. Milan’s recent away form reads a below average W3, D3, L9.
When facing the second tier Serie A sides, Milan again boast a poor record which reads W1 D2 L7. And they can be backed at around 43.95. If you do fancy Milan to do well here they can be backed on the handicap +0.5 at around 1.83.
As far as goals are concerned then there looks to be some small value in backing over 2.5 goals. When looking at both sides last 10 respective home and away matches against similar opposition. In the 20 games, 10 matches have seen 3 or more goals, and 10 games have seen 2 or less goals. 8 of Lazio’s last 12 home games have also seen 3 or more goals, and over 2.5 goals can be backed at around 2.11.
This is a vital game for both sides, if either are to make a challenge for European places. My ratings suggest value in both the match and goal lines. When looking at the goal line, there is value in the overs, however it should be noted that Lazio have kept 4 clean sheets in their opening 5 home league matches this season.
For my trade I am turning to the match line where all the value is with the home side. They have won all 5 of their opening 5 home games whilst scoring at least 2 goals in the process. Here they are coming up against a Milan side that still look vulnerable away to the better Serie A sides. My ratings suggest that Lazio should probably be giving away three quarters of a goal, and so my recommended trade is Lazio -0.5 at around 2.11.