Atletico Madrid are coming into this match in some decent form. Last weekend they saw off David Moyes' Real Sociedad 2-0 away from home. This victory left Atletico Madrid in 4th place on 16 points and they are now just 2 points behind city rivals and leaders Real Madrid. Atletico’s recent home record reads a strong looking W10, D3, L2
When hosting the second tier La Liga sides, Atletico’s home record reads a reasonable looking W5, D3, L2 and Atletico can be backed at around 1.60 and this looks to be priced a little low.
The recent head-to-head record at the Vicente Calderon is mixed and reads Atletico Madrid 1 win, 3 Draws and Valencia 1 win.
The draw can be backed at around 4.00 and this looks to offer some good value.
Valencia have started the season in fairly average form. Here they are coming off a routine 3-0 victory at home to Malaga and this sent them up to 8th place on 12 points, which is 4 behind today’s opponents. Valencia’s recent away record reads a fairly resilient W5, D6, L4.
When facing the top 2 tier La Liga sides away from home Valencia’s away record again reads a resilient W1, D6, L3 and they can be backed at around 7.00. If you do fancy Valencia to do well then you can keep the 1 goal loss on your side, and they can be backed on the +1.0 goal handicap at around 1.84.
As far as the goal line is concerned then the stats point to a low scoring affair. When looking at both sides last 10 home and away matches against similar opposition, of the 20 matches 7 have seen 3 or more goals, 8 have seen 2 goals scored, and 5 have seen 1 or less. 8 of Atletico’s last 11 home games have seen 2 or less goals, and my ratings suggest value in under 2.0/2.5 goals which can be backed at around 1.93.
This looks a good match up and my ratings suggest value in both the match and goal lines. When looking at the goal line then Atletico have kept 8 clean sheets in their last 12 home games. With every indication that this will be a hard fought low scoring game the value is certainly with under 2.0/2.5 goals.
For my trade I am turning to the match line where the value is with Valencia. Valencia’s record away to the top La Liga sides does not feature many victories, but it is rare they get completely turned over. Indeed they have only lost 5 of their last 15, whilst drawing 8. The draw priced at 4.00 also offers some decent value in a game where the home side is priced far too low. So my recommended trade is Valencia +1.0 at around 1.85.