20 Oct 2015 21:45 Dynamo Kiev v Chelsea
This Tuesday evening Ukrainian champions Dynamo Kiev take on Chelsea at the Olympic Stadium, Kiev. Kick-Off 19:45 BST
Ukrainian Champions Dynamo Kiev have made a strong start to the season, however they are coming off a 0-3 home defeat to their nearest rivals Shakhtar Donetsk. This defeat has left Kiev in 2nd place on 28 points. Dynamo Kiev’s home record reads a very strong W11, D3, L1.
When hosting the Top 6 Ukrainian sides, Kiev’s record reads a positive W6, D2, L2.
Dynamo Kiev last appeared in the Champions League in 2012 and their recent home record reads a modest looking W3, D3, L4.
This is the first time that the 2 sides have met in European competition.
Despite beating Aston Villa 2-0 at the weekend Chelsea are approaching this game in some disarray. After 9 Premier League matches they have lost 4 matches and surprisingly conceded 19 goals in the process. Chelsea currently sit in 11th place in the Premier League on 11 points, which is already 10 behind leaders Manchester City.
Chelsea’ recent domestic away form reads a strong looking W8, D3, L4 and away at the top Premier League sides it reads a resilient looking W3, D5, L2.
Chelsea’s European away record reads a reasonable looking W3, D5, L2.
Goal Lines
As far as goals are concerned then we have some mixed stats. When looking at both sides' last 10 home and away matches against their domestic elite sides, in the 20 matches we have the following: 9 matches have seen 4 or more goals, 7 games have seen 3 goals and 4 matches have seen 1 or less goals scored. Despite the stats suggesting goals my ratings are highlighting value in the Under 2.0/2.5 goal line.
Summary
This is a vital game for Chelsea who will be looking to take something away from this game in what looks a very competitive battle for the top 2 places. Here they are coming up against a Dynamo Kiev side who have an incredibly strong domestic home record, where prior to the defeat last weekend, they have only lost once in 29 league matches. Also it should be noted that Kiev have kept 14 clean sheets in their last 19 home games.
Here my ratings are suggesting value in backing a Chelsea side that have only won 5 of their 12 competitive matches this season. Although it should be noted that Kiev beat Everton 5-2 in a Europa League match last season historically they have struggled against the better sides. This would be a major scalp for Kiev which my ratings suggest is beyond them. The draw looks excellent value priced at around 3.40 and I am going to keep this on your side and go with the visitors off scratch. So my recommended trade for this game is Chelsea -0.0 goals at around 1.90.
20 Oct 2015 21:45 Arsenal v Bayern Munich
This Tuesday evening sees a vital Champions League tie when Arsenal take on German Champions Bayern Munich at the Emirates. Kick-Off 19:45 BST.
Arsenal are coming into this match on the back of a 3-0 victory at Watford over the weekend. Currently in the Premier League they sit in 2nd place on 19 points which is only 2 behind leaders Manchester City. Despite this recent good run of domestic form, Arsene Wenger’s side are desperate for anything they can get here, as the probability is that 2 defeats against the German champions will mean that they will not qualify for the knockout stages. A feat which is unheard of during Wenger’s reign.
Arsenal’s recent domestic home record reads a solid looking W10, D3, L2.
When facing the elite Premier League sides, again the Gunners are resilient and their record reads W2, D5, L3. It should be noted that they have also only lost 1 of their last 8 matches.
Arsenal’s recent Champions League form reads W5, D1, L4. Indeed prior to season 2012/13 the Emirates was a fortress on European nights. However the Gunners have now lost 6 of their last 14 home matches and 2 of these were against tonight’s opposition.
Since 2000 Arsenal have hosted Bayern Munich four times in this competition with the record reading Arsenal 1 win, 1 Draw, Bayern Munich 2 wins.
As usual Bayern Munich have made an excellent start to the season. Here they are coming off a 1-0 victory away at Werder Bremen, and currently Pep Guardiola’s side top the league having taken the maximum 27 points from 27.
Bayern Munich’s recent domestic away record reads W12, D0, L3 and when facing the top Bundesliga sides away from home their record reads W5, D3, L2.
Bayern’s recent European away record reads a fairly average looking W4, D2, L4
Goal Lines
As far as goals are concerned then if we look at both sides' last 10 European home and away games then we see that 4 or more goals have been seen in 7 matches, 3 goals have been seen in 3, a,nd 2 or less goals have been seen in 10. Domestically when looking at both sides' last 15 home and away games 10 of Bayern’s have seen at least 3 goals with 5 seeing 4 or more goals scored. In the case of Arsenal only 3 of their last 15 home games have seen 4 or more goals scored.
Summary
This is a vital game for the Gunners who really need to gain something from these next 2 meetings with the European giants. Here my ratings suggest value in the match and goal lines. When looking at the goal line there is value in Under 3 goals. When hosting the elite Premier League sides, only 1 of Arsenal’s last 15 home games have seen 4 or more goals. For my trade I am turning to the match line. When facing the Top 6 domestic sides last season Bayern only won 1 of the 5 matches. Although Arsenal have lost 5 of their last 14 European home games my ratings suggest they should only be giving up a quarter of a goal here. So my recommended trade for this game is Arsenal +0.5 goals at around 2.06.