17 Oct 2015 21:45 Torino v AC Milan
This Saturday evening sees a Serie A clash when Torino host AC Milan at the Olympic Stadium, Turin. Kick-Off 19:45 BST.
Despite losing 1-2 at promoted Carpi last time out, Torino have started the season in very positive fashion. Currently they sit in 5th place on 13 points and they are only 5 points behind league leaders Fiorentina. Torino’s recent home record reads a very resilient looking W9, D4, L2. Indeed Torino have now won their last 5 league home games on the bounce.
When hosting the 2nd tier Serie A sides Torino’s form reads again reads a strong looking W5, D4, L1 and they can be backed at around 2.50 and this price looks to offer some value. If you do fancy Torino then you have the option of keeping an element of the draw on your side and they can be backed on the Asian Handicap -0.0/0.5 goals at around 2.11.
The recent head-to-head record at the Olympic Stadium slightly favours the visitors and reads Torino 0 wins, 2 Draws and Milan 1 win.
The draw can be backed at around 3.30 and although this should certainly not be discounted given both sides recent form though it looks priced a little low.
Milan are coming off a very poor 0-4 home defeat to Napoli and it looks as though it is going to take Sinisa Milhavlovic’s side some time to start functioning as a winning unit. Currently they sit in 11th place on 9 points and already this season Milan have lost away at both Inter & Fiorentina. Milan’s recent away form reads a very modest looking W3, D3, L9.
When facing the mid table Serie A sides Milan boast an average W3, D4, L3 record and they can be backed at around 3.15. If you do fancy Milan to do well here then I would certainly look to keep the draw on your side and they can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.0/0.5 goals at around 1.84
Looking at the goal line then the stats are mixed. When looking at both sides last 10 respective home and away games against similar opposition. In the 20 matches 9 have seen 3 or more goals, 5 have seen 2 goals and 6 have seen 1 or less. When looking at the general stats only 3 of Torino’s last 16 home have seen 1 or less goals scored and 9 of Milan’s last 16 away have seen 3 or more goals
Here my ratings suggest some value backing Over 2.0/2.5 goals at around 1.90.
This is an interesting match up and despite the influx of new players to Milan during the summer the value here is with the home side. Looking at the goal line there looks some decent risk v reward backing Over 2.0/2.5 goals. For my trade I am siding with Torino who have become very resilient at home having lost just 4 of their last 27 matches. Here they are coming up against a Milan side who have only won 3 of their last 19 away games, and there looks to be some decent risk v reward backing Torino to register their 1st home win v Milan in 14 years, and so my recommended trade is Torino -0.0/0.5 goals at around 2.11.
18 Oct 2015 16:00 Napoli v Fiorentina
This Sunday afternoon sees a big Serie A clash when Napoli host top of the table Fiorentina at the San Paolo Stadium. Kick-Off 14:00 BST.
After losing their opening match at Sassuolo, Napoli are now unbeaten in 6 Serie A matches, and have won 3 of their last 4. Here they are coming of a very impressive 4-0 away win at Milan in the San Siro stadium. This run of good form has sent Maurizio Sarri’s team up to 6th place on 12points, just 6 behind today’s opponents. Napoli’s recent home form reads a very strong looking W10, D3, L2.
When hosting teams of Fiorentina’s stature, again Napoli’s record is strong and reads W7, D1, L2 and they can be backed at around 1.78 to win this game, which when looking at my ratings offers no real value.
The recent head-to-head record at the San Paolo is fairly mixed and reads Napoli 2 wins, 2 Draws and Fiorentina 1 win.
The draw can be backed at around 3.80 and my ratings suggest this offers some decent value.
Fiorentina under the guidance of new coach Paulo Sousa are also coming into this game in some very good form. Currently after 7 matches they top the table on 18 points and after beating Atalanta 3-0 at home, they have now won their last 5 Serie A matches on the bounce. Fiorentina’s recent away record reads a good looking W8, D2, L5.
When facing teams from the top 2 tiers of the Serie A, Fiorentina boast a mediocre away record, which reads W2, D2, L6 and they can be backed at around a value looking 5.00. If you do fancy Fiorentina to carry on their good form, then you can keep an element of the 1 goal loss on your side and they can be backed on the +0.5/1.0 goal handicap at around 1.96.
As far as goals are concerned then my ratings & the stats point to the Overs. When looking at both sides last 10 respective home and away games to similar opposition, 13 of the 20 matches have seen 3 or more goals, and 7 have seen 2 or less goals scored. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at around 1.82.
This has the makings of a very entertaining match between 2 in form sides. Here my ratings suggest value in both the match and goal lines. Fiorentina have only lost 5 of their last 16 away games, however they do tend to struggle away at the better opposition, whilst Napoli tend to thrive at home in these situations. None the less my ratings suggest that Fiorentina should only be receiving a half a goal at the most and the visitors look good value +0.5/1.0 goal. For my trade I am turning to the goal line where 12 of Napoli’s last 15 home and 11 of Fiorentina’s last 15 away have seen 3 or more goals, and so my recommended trade is Over 2.5 goals at around 1.82.
18 Oct 2015 21:45 Internazionale v Juventus
This Sunday evening sees one of the Serie A matches of the season, when Inter Milan host champions Juventus at the San Siro. Kick-Off 19:45 GMT.
After starting the season in very impressive form by winning their opening 5 matches, Roberto Mancini’s side have since lost 1-4 at home to Fiorentina and drawn 1-1 away at Sampdoria. Currently after 7 matches Inter sit in 2nd place on 16 points and they are only 2 points behind leaders Fiorentina. Inter’s recent home form reads a decent looking W7, D4, L4 and it should be noted that they have won 4 of their last 5 home matches.
When hosting the elite sides, Inter again boast a reasonable record that reads W4, D3, L3 and they can be backed at around 2.75. If you do fancy Mancini’s side to do well here, then you can keep the draw on your side and they can be backed off scratch, +0.0 goals at around 1.95.
The recent head-to-head record at the San Siro favours the visitors and reads Inter 0 wins, 2 Draws and Juventus 3 wins.
The draw can be backed at around 3.25 and this has to be given some very serious consideration.
Champions Juventus are going through a transitional period and they have made a very stuttering start to the season. They did beat Bologna 3-1 at home last time out. However they have lost 2 of their opening 3 away matches. After 7 games Juventus now sit in 12th place on 8 points and their recent away record reads by their own high standards a modest looking W6, D5, L4.
When facing teams of Inter’s grading, Juve boast a decent record which reads W6 D2, L2. If you do fancy the champions to do well here then I would certainly look to keep the draw on your side and they can also be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.0 goals at around 2.00.
When considering the goal line then there is a leaning to Unders. When looking at both sides' last 10 home and away games to similar opposition we can see in the 20 matches 7 have seen 3 or more goals, 6 have seen 2 and 7 matches have seen 1 or less. Here my ratings suggest value in Under 2.0/2.5 goals which can be backed at around 1.95.
This is an extremely difficult game to work out. When looking at the match line although Inter have started the season in positive fashion, their recent defeat at home to Fiorentina leaves many unanswered questions. In the case of Juve, they have looked a shadow of their former selves. Here my ratings suggest value backing Under 2.0/2.5 goals and this certainly looks a reasonable shout given Juve’s away record to teams of Inters standing. For my trade I am turning to the match line, where 11 of the last 23 head-to-head matches have ended all square. Both the odds makers and my ratings cannot separate these 2 sides and with the strong draw bias in this fixture my recommended trade for this game is the draw at around 3.25