This Sunday evening Poland host the Republic of Ireland in a crucial Euro 2016 qualifier at the Narodowy Stadium, Warsaw. Kick-off 19:45 BST.
This match will see Group D closing in dramatic fashion. With Group leaders Germany hosting rank outsiders Georgia, the situation is the winner of this match will gain automatic qualification. The draw will probably see Poland go through, although should the game end 2-2, 3-3 then Irelanbd will go through having scored more away goals against Poland.
Poland are coming into this match on the back of a very fortunate 2-2 draw away at Scotland on Thursday evening. Robert Lewandowski netted in the 4th minute of injury time to gain what could in the end be a vital point for Poland. This draw has left Poland in 2nd place on 18 points which is 1 behind leaders Germany, and they are ahead of today’s opponents on goal difference.
Poland’s recent home record reads a solid looking W5, D4, L1.
When we look at Poland’s recent competitive record it reads again a decent looking W5, D3, L2. It should also be noted that Poland are undefeated in their last 6 home competitive matches.
This will be the 15th time that the 2 nations have met when hosted by the Poles and the record reads Poland 9 wins, 4 Draws and Republic of Ireland 1 win.
The Republic of Ireland beat World Champions Germany 1-0 in Dublin on Thursday night to give Martin O’Neill’s side an excellent chance of progressing to the finals
Ireland’s recent away record reads a resilient looking W2, D5, L3.
When looking at their competitive away record it again reads a decent looking W4, D2, L4.
Goal Lines
As far as goals are concerned then the stats suggest a leaning to Overs. When we look at both sides' last 10 home and away competitive matches we can see that in the 20 matches, 3 or more goals were seen in 10 matches, 2 goals were seen in 6, and 1 or less goals were also scored in 4.
Summary
Games do not get any bigger than this, as victory will send either nation to the finals in France. Historically Poland have had the better of these meetings, However, when it comes to competitive internationals the 2 nations have met 3 times, and on each occasion it has ended a draw. Here my ratings suggest value in backing Ireland to avoid defeat.
For my trade I am going to turn to the goal line. Although Ireland have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 Internationals. Here they are coming up against a Polish side that have found the net in all 11 of their last 11 European home qualifiers and in 17 of their last 18 World Cup home qualifiers. The probability is Poland will score here, and if they do so Ireland will have to become more adventurous. Only 1 of Poland’s last 10 home qualification matches have seen 1 or less goals scored and there looks to be some decent risk v reward backing Over 2.0/2.5 goals in what should be a very hard fought game.