10 Oct 2015 18:45 Australia v Wales
Australia have looked sharp so far in the Rugby World Cu but will want to avoid South Africa in the QFs. A win against Wales will confirm this.
The resurgence of the Boks, especially their pack, makes this game more important than before. I think Wales have more chance of beating Australia than South Africa – in brief, if they lose this I think they’re gone in the next round.
Yet how can you back against Australia, after the way they played vs England ? I don’t think you can, realistically.
I quite like -7.5 points here, especially at a shade over evens. Israel Folau being fit to start, and McMahon coming in for Hooper is good news for the Aussies. I think their scrum will have the Welsh one on the rack all game. Why? Because everyone else has managed to do so.
Wales really should not have beaten England. They weren’t great against Uruguay either (albeit a reserve side).
Australia have beaten New Zealand recently and are the current Rugby Championship winners. They are a very good side, and are at just about full strength. Wales have made a few changes, notably Tipuric starting, and North at centre, but I think they may struggle up front and at scrum time.
Wales and Australia do play each other quite regularly. In fact they’ve met 10 times in the last 6 years, with 6 of those 10 games being played at the Millenium Stadium, Cardiff.
The head to head record is 10-0 to Australia over these 10 games, or 13-1 if you go back another 3 years as well.
Yes, ten straight wins for Australia versus ten straight defeats for the Welsh.
Admittedly, they’ve not won by more than nine points since 2010, and have only covered this 7.5 point cap twice in the last nine games. But, this Australian side is playing better rugby now than at any time in the last 5 years. They are better than those historical results, slightly.
Australia have won 7 of their 8 games in 2015, their sole loss coming in Auckland. They won by 20 points last week at Twickenham against an England side who haven’t lost by 20 points at home for 7 years. They will not really want to face South Africa in the quarter finals, and know that Scotland or Japan really would be about as easy a game as they could get, relatively. It can be viewed as a must win game for both sides.
Recommended Trade: Australia –7.5 points at around 2.02
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10 Oct 2015 22:00 England v Uruguay
It's been a bitterly disappointing Rugby World Cup for England and even a heavy win against Uruguay won't make up for it. Ben Hathaway previews.
This wont even be the biggest game of rugby played in Manchester on Saturday, shamefully. People are desperately trying to offload tickets for far less than they paid for them. It's not a great look for English rugby union, a dead rubber vs the worst side at the entire tournament.
It doesn’t really appeal that much as a betting event either, I can't imagine it will be massively worth watching. More muddled team selection, yet another illogical centre partnership, and a backrow with Haskell, arguably better at 7 than 6, at 6, Robshaw, certainly better at 6 than 7, at 7, and Nick Easter at 8. Tom Youngs continues at hooker, with Jamie George, probably the best English hooker in the league last season, yet to play one minute in the entire tournament.
It does seem odd that Kruis and George sit on the bench, while Easter, 37, and Parling, 32 this month, start. Why not give Burgess at run at 6, or off the bench at 6 perhaps? All extremely odd stuff. The result really isn’t in question, so we have to look at whether England can win by more than 59 points to cover one of the largest handicaps we’ve seen this World Cup.
They have gone with four playmakers and kickers, in Goode, Slade, Farrell and Ford, as opposed to the one we see usually in an English team. Moving the main strike centre to the bench also is baffling. It's too muddled to think they will click completely but they should still put 40-50 on Uruguay. Australia reserves beat them 65-3 to cover a 61.5 cap but Fiji only won by 32, and Wales reserves by 45. Very hard to gauge a points line here. England should play with zero caution, and in Care they have a scrum half who’ll probably tap and go a lot from pens, which may work well. It’s just a bizarre back line selection, overall, from a man who doesn’t seem to have any idea what he’s doing.
I'm happy to back Uruguay +60.5 but just as an interest bet here, not much value around.
Recommended Trade: Small play on Uruguay +60.5 at around 1.98
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11 Oct 2015 18:45 France v Ireland
France face Ireland in one of the standout games of the Rugby World Cup so far. Ben Hathaway previews.
The biggest game of the group stages, outside of Group A, in my opinion. The winner gets Argentina in the quarterfinals, the loser plays the All Blacks. There is a little bit of hype here in that its viewed as going out (to NZ) and definitely making a semi (beating Argentina). I think whoever plays Argentina is in for a really rough ride, but be under no illusions that this is the game both sides have been waiting for all through the group stages. Momentum is so crucial a consideration, both sides will want to go through the group stages unbeaten.
As with the England Australia game, I think you will get a trade out of the draw price, at 23.0. It could be very cagey and tight, with not much clear daylight between the sides right up until the final whistle. A draw would suit Ireland too, as they have a superior points difference, and thus would top the group. If they are down by 3 in the last 10 they wont be going for the win.
I don’t think there is much between the sides at all, and cant form a concrete opinion on one or the other winning. As such, the 2.38 available for a French win appeals to me, or laying Ireland 1.84 to give you some draw flexibility too.
A lot appeals to me about this French side, and I think their pack is slightly better than the Irish one, also their centre combination offers slightly more. You just don’t know how they are going to perform. I do think they will have an advantage over the Irish at scrum time, however, it is France. They are more than capable of imploding.
Recommended Trade: Back France +2.5 at around 1.92; Back the Draw for a trade at around 22.0