This Saturday evening Bosnia host Wales in a vital Euro 2016 Qualifier at the Bilino Polji Stadium, Zenica. Kick-off is at 19:45 BST.
Bosnia are coming into this match after beating Andorra 3-0. Previously to this they lost 1-3 in Belgium. Currently Bosnia sit in 4th place in the group on 11 points, which is 2 behind Israel.
If Bosnia are to qualify for the play offs they must finish ahead of Israel on points. Israel are home to Cyprus this evening but then head over to Belgium in what will be a tricky tie. Bosnia finish their campaign in Cyprus. So in reality nothing short of a victory here will keep Bosnia in the tournament.
Bosnia’s recent home record reads a very mixed looking W5, D1, L4.
When we look at Bosnia recent competitive record it reads a decent looking W6, D2, L2.
This will be the first time that the 2 nations have met on Bosnian soil.
Wales are on the brink of qualification, frustratingly they drew 0-0 at home to Israel last time out, and indeed Israel are the only side who can now deny Wales a place in the finals. Chris Coleman’s side finish up by playing Andorra in their last home game so qualification is virtually assured.
Wales’s recent away record reads a very reasonable looking W4, D2, L4.
When looking at their qualification record it again reads again a fairly good looking W5, D2, L3 and Wales are now unbeaten in this campaign.
Goal Lines
As far as goals are concerned then the stats suggest a leaning to overs. When we looking at both sides last 10 respective home and away competitive matches we can see that in the 20 matches, 3 or more goals were seen in 12 matches, 2 goals were seen in 3 and 1 or less goals were scored in only 5. Indeed looking at Wales last 20 away internationals then none have seen 1 or less goal scored.
Prediction
This is a very interesting match up and Bosnia are essentially drinking in the last chance saloon. Here my ratings suggest value in both the match and goal lines. Here the value lies with the home side, whose only blemish at home this campaign was their opening 1-2 defeat to Cyprus. Here they are facing a Welsh side that have been extremely resilient away from home, having kept 3 clean sheets in their last 3 away matches whilst remaining undefeated away from home throughout the campaign.
For my trade I am turning to the goal line, where matches involving Bosnia tend to produce goals. Since the 2014 World Cup qualifiers, 10 of Bosnia’s 13 home matches have seen at least 3 goals scored, and there looks some decent risk v reward backing overs on the handicap.