Two teams both seeking their first wins of the 2015 Rugby World Cup face off in Leicester on Tuesday. Ben Hathaway previews Canada v Romania.
That’s right, it’s the one you’ve all been waiting for, a dead rubber between two minnows at 4.45pm in Leicester on a Tuesday. Joking aside, I think this will be a genuinely good game to watch, and I think there is a bet to be found too.
These sides have actually met 3 times over the last decade, with all 3 ending in Romanian wins. Yet all 3 matches were played in Bucharest, and none carried anywhere near the gravitas of a World Cup fixture such as this.
This is arguably one of the hardest matches to price for the whole competition. Both have shown real signs of promise, Canada especially out wide, and the Romanian pack, as expected, has been brutally competitive. I don’t see there being a huge gulf between the two, and was expecting Canada maybe 5/6 (1.833), so 1.66 seems a little short perhaps. Tyler Ardron is missing by the looks of it, which makes me lean slightly towards a lay at these prices. I do like Canada’s backs to slightly outshine the Romanian ones, who don’t seem to have offered a great deal, but I think the flip side to this is the grizzled Romanian pack may have the edge in the tight over the Canucks.
Another reason to sway the way of the Mighty Oaks is the 2 differing recent records. One side has won 15/25 games over the last 2 years. One has won 3/19. The side who have won 16% of their games are odds on. There is a slight discrepancy in terms of opposition but they aren’t that drastic. Romania aren’t that bad. Canada aren’t that bad either, of course. Theyre probably a touch better than 3/19 suggests, but even looking at a slightly shorter timeline they’ve won 2/13 over the last year.
I cant back a side at 1.66 who have won 3 of their last 19 matches. Even with it being Jamie Cudmore’s international swansong. The ideal scenario in my eyes would be to back Romania with a 3 point head start, still at odds against, and hope Canada edge a classic by a single point.
Just a note – Cudmore leaves the international stage after this game, and we say goodbye to one of its most colourful characters. A troubled youth, owning a nightclub, and having your own wine label called “sin bin” (plus a brother who plays Collossus in X-men) doesn’t even scratch the surface, and the international scene will be poorer for his absence.