The Cowboys have started the season undefeated but with each win came a huge loss. They face another 2-0 NFC team in the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday.
When I see a line early on in the week that jumps out at me immediately before doing any research I always get a bit scared. I start looking for the reasons as to why it could be a trap game and why I shouldn’t be betting on it. But I can’t find anything in this game that puts me off Atlanta -1.0 in Dallas.
Both teams are 2-0 but the mood in each camp couldn’t be any different. The Cowboys are missing their two mega-stars and emotional leaders in QB Tony Romo and WR Dez Bryant who are facing lengthy spells on the sidelines due to a broken clavicle and a fifth metatarsal injury respectively. It’s a polar-opposite situation in Atlanta where QB Matt Ryan and WR Julio Jones are absolutely lighting up the league.
Julio has begun paying back his new $84m summer contract extension in style during the opening two games, sitting in 2nd on the receiving yards list with 276 yards and is top of the reception list with 22 catches so far (Antonio Brown tops list with 328 yards). Julio torched the Eagles in the opening week when he hauled in his first 2 TDs of the year and came up clutch last week against the Giants when his 37-yard reception set up Devonte Freeman’s game-winning TD with 1:14 to play.
Speaking of clutch, Matt Ryan has already led his team on two 4th quarter comebacks in their opening fixtures. Last week he completed 9 of 13 passes before hitting Julio on the aforementioned 37-yarder to set up the game winner. He is the only QB to orchestrate 2 game-winning drives in the opening 2 fixtures of this campaign, but I don’t expect him to have to make a 3rd on Sunday.
There’s no doubting if the Cowboys had Romo and Bryant healthy this would be the toughest team Atlanta has faced so far this season, but the fact remains that those two absences are complete game-changers and now the Cowboys are arguably the worst team Atlanta will have faced this season. Under centre for Dallas on Sunday will be Brandon Weeden, one of the poorest QBs this league has seen in a few years. Okay, he played well when he stepped in for Romo last week against Philly, going 7 for 7 and throwing 1 TD to Terrance Williams but historically Weeden is not much of a baller.
An ex-MLB minor league pitcher and late-bloomer to the NFL, Weeden’s numbers since he came in the league in 2012 have not been eye-catching: 57.4% Pass Completion, 27:28 TD:INT Ratio, and a QB Rating of 73.4 (the second-lowest in the NFL since 2012) are hardly figures that Dallas fans will be drooling over, no matter how much praise Jerry Jones has heaped on his backup QB. You’d give him some hope if he could close his eyes and lob one down the sideline towards Dez, but with Terrance Willams and Cole Beasley as his primary targets, you can’t give him much hope.
Atlanta’s Defense is not the same laughing-stock it was last season since ex-Seattle Defensive Coordinator Dan Quinn came to town as head coach. Their passing D still doesn’t overwhelm, having given up 636 yards so far, but their run D is in the top 10 in the NFL this campaign. Considering a lot will be put on the shoulders of Cowboys’ RBs Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden this week, this bodes well for Atlanta.
Jerry Jones has stated that his team will still be in the playoff hunt when Romo returns in 7-8 weeks and that there’s no need to panic. Granted, an 2-0 start with two wins over your NFC East means things could be a lot worse for the Cowboys. Imagine an 0-2 start and Brandon Weeden leading your team down the stretch; no thanks. As long as he can keep them around .500 until Romo’s return, I think the Cowboys will be in good stead; but King Brandon’s reign won’t begin with a win.
Take Atlanta -1.0 here at around 1.934 or anything above 1.85.