11 Apr 19:30 Burnley Vs Arsenal


Burnley are having a very inconsistent season this year. However, Sean Dyche’s men do seem to raise their game against the Premier League’s better sides as demonstrated by their battling 0-0 draw at home to Spurs last weekend. Currently Burnley sit in 18th place which is 2 points away from safety. Burnley’s recent home record reads a resilient looking W4, D6, L5

When hosting the Premier League elite sides, Burnley’s record reads an average looking W3, D2, L5 and Burnley can be backed at around 6.30. 

If you do fancy Burnley to do well here, then you are probably best keeping the 1 goal defeat on your side and Burnley can be backed on the Asian handicap + 1.0 at around 1.95.

The draw can be backed at around 4.45 and this looks to offer some decent value given Burnley’s recent home record.

Arsenal are coming into this match in some superb form and they have now won 7 of their last 7 league games on the bounce and 10 of their last 11 games. The Gunners are coming off a very impressive 4-1 victory over Liverpool and Arsene Wenger’s side will be looking to finish as high as possible in the table. Currently Arsenal sit in 2nd place on 63 points which is 7 behind current leaders Chelsea. Arsenal’s recent away form reads W8, D2, L5

When visiting the bottom sides Arsenal’s record reads a very solid looking W8, D2, L0 and Arsenal can be backed at around 1.57 and this price does not offer any real value.

When looking at the goal line then we have some mixed stats.  8 of Burnley’s last 11 home games have seen 2 or less goals, whilst 7 of Arsenal’s last 9 away games have seen 3 or more goals. When looking at both sides last 10 home and away matches against similar opposition, then in the 20 matches 6 have seen 4 or more goals, 5 have seen 3 goals scored and 9 games have seen 2 or less goals. My ratings suggest some small value in unders and under 2.5/3.0 goals can be backed at 1.95.

Looking at the match line this is a very tough game to call and although Burnley have a decent record at home to the top sides this season, there certainly looks a determination in this Arsenal side to finish as high as possible. Looking at both sides general form their looks value in the home side. However Arsenal do have a particularly strong away record to the bottom sides. Here I would lean towards the home side on the handicap. For my trade I am going to turn to the goal line where incredibly when facing teams in the top half of the table in 7 matches Burnley are yet to concede a goal in the first half. Only 1 of these games went onto see 3 or more goals. Burnley will look to keep this as tight as possible from the start.match is under 2.5/3.0 at around 1.95.

So my recommended trade for this match is under 2.5/3.0 at around 1.95.

Category: Predictions

Written by: Matchbook

Date: 07:00 10 Apr, 2015