DEPORTIVO ALAVES - VALENCIA
Bookmakers are siding decisively with one team. Deportivo Alaves is the shortest price on a book of 1.80 / 3.30 / 5.00 (1 / X / 2), an implied 52.5%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 52.5% / 28.6% / 18.9% on an overround of 5.9%.
The draw is unusually well backed at 3.30 (28.6%), which normally points to a cagey, low-scoring game rather than an open one.
Liquidity is strong — €84,126 already matched on the 1X2 market, putting this among the most heavily traded fixtures on the card. Prices in a market that deep are far more reliable than in a thin one.
Our monitoring has flagged unusual money on this game: 94% of the matched volume has gone on over 2.5 goals. Treat it as a signal to look closer, not as a tip in itself.
In the league table Deportivo Alaves sit 3rd on 10 points (3W 1D 1L) with Valencia 20th on 1 point (0W 1D 4L).
Deportivo Alaves read L-W-W-D-W-L across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (3W 1D 2L) — patchy.
Valencia read L-L-L-L-D-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (1W 1D 4L) — poor.
Head to head the record reads 1-2-1 — Deportivo Alaves wins, draws, then Valencia wins. Their last meeting finished Valencia - Deportivo Alaves: 3-2.
Our last-six model flags 1 qualifying strike here. Reading Deportivo Alaves first, then Valencia, out of their last six: HT U 1.50 6 and 4.
Deportivo Alaves team news: Alaves will continue to be without Mikel Rodríguez and Facundo Garces due to injury, with neither expected back until the season's final stages.
Deportivo Alaves team news: Aitor Manas is the latest addition to the injury list, and he is expected to be out for the rest of the month.
Valencia team news: Valencia are facing a number of injury concerns ahead of this fixture.
Valencia team news: The away team will be without Umar Sadiq, Sergi Canos, Copete, Diego Lopez, Mouctar Diakhaby, and Dimitri Foulquier due to injuries.
Deportivo Alaves are without 3 — Mikel Rodríguez (Out - injured), Facundo Garcés (Out - injured), Aitor Mañas (Out - injured).
Valencia are without 8 — César Tárrega (Doubtful - injured), Umar Sadiq (Out - injured), Sergi Canós (Out - injured), Copete (Out - injured), Diego López (Out - injured), Dimitri Foulquier (Out - injured).
Early lineups are in: Deportivo Alaves set up 3-5-2 against 4-2-3-1. See the pitch graphic above for the full XI.
Deportivo Alaves lean hardest on Jonny Otto (6.8), Antonio Sivera (6.8), Toni Martínez (6.8) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
Valencia lean hardest on Stole Dimitrievski (8.2), Filip Ugrinic (8.2), Javi Guerra (8.2) on our Player Index — how much of the side's football each man accounts for, out of 10. It measures involvement and cover, not performance.
César Tárrega is out for Valencia — index 7.2, against 8.4 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Umar Sadiq is out for Valencia — index 7.4, against 9.0 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Mouctar Diakhaby is out for Valencia — index 8.2, against 8.4 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
Luis Rioja is out for Valencia — index 7.2, against 8.2 for the best cover we hold at his position. Well covered.
The projected score for this one is Deportivo Alaves 2 - 1 Valencia, a home win by 1 with 3 goals in it — on the right side of the 2.5 line.
The read: Deportivo Alaves at 1.80 is the side the market is with, and nothing in the data above argues against it.
This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 22:00 on 14th September 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.