HIBERNIAN - HEARTS
A narrow edge, nothing more. Hibernian is the shortest price on a book of 2.20 / 3.70 / 2.85 (1 / X / 2), an implied 42.3%. Across the three outcomes the book reads 42.3% / 25.1% / 32.6% on an overround of 7.6%.
Money has come for Hibernian to win: the price has shortened from 2.51 to 2.32, a move of 8.2%. Steam like that on the day of the game usually reflects team news the wider market has not caught up with yet.
Hearts to win has drifted from 2.70 to 2.91 (7.2%). Layers are happy to take that side on, which is worth respecting.
Liquidity is strong — €16,493 already matched on the 1X2 market, putting this among the most heavily traded fixtures on the card. Prices in a market that deep are far more reliable than in a thin one.
Our monitoring has flagged unusual money on this game: 60% of the matched volume has gone on over 2.5 goals. Treat it as a signal to look closer, not as a tip in itself.
The Asian line sits at -0.25 goals, with Hibernian giving the start, split 2.01 / 1.89. The handicap is the cleaner read on the expected margin here.
In the league table Hibernian sit 7th on 6 points (2W 0D 1L) with Hearts 6th on 6 points (2W 0D 1L).
Hibernian read W-L-D-W-D-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (3W 2D 1L) — patchy.
Hearts read W-D-D-W-D-W across their last 6 in all competitions, most recent first (3W 3D 0L) — a strong recent run.
Head to head the record reads 3-0-3 — Hibernian wins, draws, then Hearts wins. Their last meeting finished Hibernian - Hearts: 1-2.
Our last-six model flags 3 qualifying strikes here. Reading Hibernian first, then Hearts, out of their last six: O 2.50 3 and 5, HT U 1.50 6 and 3, GG 3 and 5.
Hibernian team news: Hibernian head coach David Gray named three changes after the Hibees lost late on in their Europa Conference League qualifier second leg 3-2 to KAA Gent on Thursday night at Easter Road, before bouncing back with a 2-1 win over Dundee.
Hibernian team news: Goalkeeper Raphael Sallinger was chosen between the sticks again. Grant Hanley joined Jordan Obita and Jason Kerr in the Hibs back three. Callum Wright replaced Adam Mayor at left wing-back, with Felix Passlack remaining at right wing-back.
Hearts team news: Hearts boss Wouter Vrancken named four changes from the Jambos' 2-2 draw against Austrian outfit Rapid Wien before they prevailed on penalties in Vienna last Wednesday night, as they beat St Johnstone 2-1 at Tynecastle on Saturday.
Hearts team news: Goalkeeper Beau Reus was the hero between the sticks. Christian Borchgrevink replaced Jamie McCart at left-back, as Stuart Findlay and Oisin McEntee continued in the heart of defence, and Jordi Altena remained at right-back.
Hibernian are without 1 — Rocky Bushiri (Doubtful - injured).
Hearts are without 5 — Tom Renaud (Out - injured), Stephen Kingsley (Doubtful - injured), Malachi Fagan-Walcott (Doubtful - injured), Craig Halkett (Doubtful - injured), Ageu (Doubtful - injured). Tom Renaud (8.18/10) would normally be first on the team sheet — that is a real hole in this side.
Early lineups are in: Hibernian set up 3-4-1-2 against 4-2-3-1. See the pitch graphic above for the full XI.
The projected score for this one is Hibernian 2 - 2 Hearts, a draw with 4 goals in it — on the right side of the 2.5 line.
The read: Hibernian at 2.20 is the side the market is with, and nothing in the data above argues against it. The late money is pointing the same way.
This analysis is generated automatically from BTFNews odds, market and statistical data at 19:30 on 3rd September 2026. It is information, not advice — always check team news before the off.