Inter Milan have started the season in superb form. Roberto Mancini’s charges are coming off a 1-0 victory over Verona, and they have now their opening 5 matches and sit on top of the Serie A table on 15 points. Inter’s recent home form reads a decent looking W7, D5, L4.
When hosting teams of Fiorentina’s grading, Inter boast a modest record that reads W3, D4, L3 and Inter can be backed at around 1.85 and my ratings suggest this offers no real value.
The recent head-to-head record at the San Siro have been dominated by the home side and reads Inter 4 wins, 0 Draws and Fiorentina 1 win.
The draw can be backed at around 3.70 and this looks to offer some very good value.
Fiorentina under new manager Paulo Sousa have also made a good start to the season, having won 4 of their opening 5 matches. They are coming of a routine 2-0 home victory against Bologna, and they currently sit in 2nd place on 12 points. Fiorentina’s recent away record reads W8, D2, L5.
When facing teams of Inter’s grading, Fiorentina boast a modest record which reads W1 D3, L6. If you do fancy Fiorentina to do well here then I would certainly look to keep the draw on your side and Fiorentina can be backed on the Asian Handicap +0.5 goals at around 2.10.
When considering the goal line then there is certainly a leaning to Overs. When looking at both sides' last 10 home and away games to similar opposition we can see in the 20 matches 10 have seen 3 or more goals and 10 matches have seen 2 or less. However 13 of Fiorentina’s last 17 away games have finished with Over 2.5 goals. Here my ratings suggest value in Overs and Over 2.5 goals can be backed at around 2.00.
This looks a very good game to end the weekend with the current top 2 Serie A sides. Here my ratings suggest value in both the match and goal lines. Looking at the goal line then there is value with the Overs. However this season Inter are yet to concede in the San Siro, so this would be a cautious lean.
Despite winning their opening 5 matches and having by far the better of the previous encounters, my ratings suggest that Inter are priced far too low here. On the flip side Fiorentina have not performed at all well when facing teams placed in the top 6. Here there are two reasonable options, of which one is straight laying Inter to win 1 point. My other option is to turn to the +0.5/1.0 handicap line and back Fiorentina where there looks a good combination of value and risk v reward. So my recommended trade for this game is Fiorentina +0.5/1.0 goal at around 1.85.