This Saturday evening sees one of the Serie A clashes of the season when Napoli host Champions Juventus at the San Paolo Stadium. Kick-Off 19:45 BST+
Napoli have made a fairly mediocre start to the season, and they are coming off a poor 0-0 draw away at promoted Carpi. Currently after 5 games Napoli sit in 11th place on 6 points, which is 9 behind leaders Inter. Despite this Napoli’s recent home form reads a reasonable looking W9, D4, L2.
When hosting the elite Serie A sides Napoli’s record is strong and reads W6, D3, L1 and Maurizio Sarri’s side can be backed at around 2.32 to win this game, which when looking at my ratings offers no real value.
The recent head-to-head record at the San Paolo favours the home side and reads Napoli 2 wins, 2 Draws and Juventus 1 win. It should be noted that last seasons' victory was the first time Juve have won at Napoli in the league since 2000.
The draw can be backed at around 3.31 and my ratings suggest this offers no real value.
Champions Juventus are also coming into this game in some very poor form. They have only won 1 of their opening 5 matches and they are yet to win at home in 3 matches, having come off a 1-1 draw at home to promoted Frosinone. Juve’s currently sit in 13th place on 5 points and their recent away record reads a good looking W7, D5, L3.
When facing teams from the top 2 tiers of the Serie A Juve have a reasonable away record, which reads W6 D2 L2 and they can be backed at around a value looking 3.50. If you do fancy Juve to do well here then given their record in Naples it is best to keep the draw on your side and Juve can be backed + 0.0/0.5 goals at around 1.95.
As far as goals are concerned then my ratings & the stats point to the Overs. When looking at both sides' last 10 home and away games to similar opposition, 9 of the 20 matches have seen 3 or more goals, 5 matches have seen 2 goals scored and 6 have seen 1 or less goals scored. Over 2.0/2.5 goals can be backed at around 2.00.
These 2 sides have made very poor starts to the season and already they are both playing catch up. Despite Juve’s record in Naples they are certainly the value here. Especially when receiving a quarter of a goal. For my trade I am going to turn to the goal line where there looks some decent value backing Overs. All 20 of Napoli’s last 20 home games have seen at least 2 goals scored. Also all 10 of the last 10 Serie A head-to-head matches in the San Paolo have again seen least 2 goals scored. Here the risk v reward looks worth taking on, and so my recommended trade is Over 2.0/2.5 goals at around 2.00.